RE:RE:RE:RE:You know a sector is contrarian whenValuuuguy wrote:
When all is said and done, I hope to exit TUD over $2.
I'm looking at the comparison between Tudor and Freegold Ventures today. Freegold (FVL.TO) is bid $.40 with 374 millioin shares fully diluted for a market cap of about $157 million.
Tudor at $1 and 221 million shares has a market cap of about $221 million.
FVL has about 3 million oz. Au resource in the Indicated and inferred categories, all open pit. They are about to update the resource with about 70,000m of additional drilling from 2021 and 2022. Gold grades are very close to Goldstorm. The average is less than 1g/t, but in the early years of mining they expect to see more than 1.3g/t. I expect comparable numbers from a Goldstorm mine plan.
Tudor has 60% of the Goldstorm resource which is 9.55 M&I and Inferred in the open pit portion of the deposit. Tudor will also update the resource estimate with about 70km of drilling over the past two years.
I'm looking forward to both of the new estimates for these companies. But right now Tudor has 3x the open pit gold and less than 1.5x the market cap of FVL. So I think $2 is a very achievable target for TUD.
Tudor's market cap values Treaty Creek as a whole at about $368 million for the 12.7 million M&I open pit gold, not counting the other 14.5 million oz. in other categories. At about $58/oz.for this gold in the ground, the TC value doubles. CDE just sold a Nevada deposit for up to $200 million, assuming the buyer (AU) finds another 2.5 million oz. at their own cost. Price per oz. on that would be a worst-case $57/oz in the ground. So again, these valuations look pretty good in terms of probability.
I'm looking for quite a bit more than $2 from TUD. The reason: At some point Seabridge will get a JV partner for KSM. The KSM deal will provide a bundle of input on the value of Treaty Creek. Seabridge has been trying to get a great deal on KSM for its shareholders (and I appreciate that), but I feel like that has been holding up the timing of the project. But when it does shake loose it should become clear that Goldstorm will be a viable project as well. Typically in this sector, when it becomes clear that a mine will be developed, that's when the highest stock prices occur.
Do your own DD. GLTA. Doug