ETC Margins - a forward lookAn aging the Q2-22 guided USD$576M backlog, using the assumptions that have been put forward by management in prior calls/discussions yields the following margins over the next 5 years:
2023: 20.3%
2024: 25.8%
2025: 27.2%
2026: 27.5%
2027: 27.5%
The margin projection reflects known contracts (including Alameda I680) for term and amount, including extensions, BUT does not include follow ons or add-ons or revisions.
Assume that follow ons/add ons/revisions carry a 5x multiple on the original award (8.6x historical experience average revealed at the time of the ETC acquisition), then follow ons represents a further USD$2.88B of revenue and margins in the 35%-40% range.
IMO, my backlog aging projections carry a high confidence on realization and profitabilty. On the other hand, carry ons are assumed and therefore carry a lower confidence both realization and on the distribution of the revenue and will require ongoing monitoring.