RE:Pancreatic Cancer Treatment Benefit-Cost AnalysisIn 2026 (the first year after regulatory approval) the EPS is USD 4.30. At a P/E ratio of 15 and assuming no dilution from present levels, this indicates a share value of USD 64.90. I also did a valuation using an EV/EBITDA ratio of 10; this generated a share value (again assuming no dilution going forward) of USD 43.20.
In 2030 (the first year of full take-up (i.e. 40% of diagnosed cases) the P/E share valuation is USD 189.40 per share, while the EV/EBIDTA share valuation is USD 173 per share.
Again, this analysis only considers the opportunity presented by pancreatic cancer cases only in USA, Canada and the EU. It ignores any potential success in breast cancer treatment or additional revenue which could be garnered from other countries.
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Further to Capitalist's analysis on ONCY's valuation based on ust the pancreatic indication is the following reported outlook:
Emerging evidence has revealed the critical role of the tumor microenvironment (TME) in tumor progression, angiogenesis, metastasis, and immunosuppression. Oncolytic viruses (OVs), a versatile therapeutic agent that targets both cancer cells and the TME, have emerged as a promising candidate for antitumor therapy. Strategies of manipulating OVs against the TME include normalization of the tumor vasculature, decomposition of the tumor stroma, and reversion of the immunosuppressive microenvironment. In pancreatic cancer, desmoplastic stroma comprises up to 80% of the tumor mass, accompanied by hypovascularity and profound immunosuppression, conferring a particularly important role to TME-targeted oncolytic virotherapy. Mechanisms and supporting evidence of OVs reversing the tumor-privileged TME and applications of TME-targeted OVs for pancreatic cancer are summarized "previously".
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36204869/