RE:RE:RE:More agressive accumulation started last friday? Volume and trading on this has been very strange the past few weeks with a pending NR Nov 14th.
My best guess is that, as the majority of this stock is retail owned, those retail holders that have expecations of ONC, either longs or recently in are comfortable with what they hold, and are waiting and watching.
The majority of institition buyers, not trading houses, will not invest in a stock under $5 on NASDAQ, so that would tend to suggest that the low volumns are being traded by day traders and other short termers that follow the mathmaical signals only.
But even some of the day trading volume appears to be being bought up (accumulated) by those that will hold for news, or longer, and the reason I thing so is that, on off days, it seems it takes even less and less volume everytime to drop the SP. So share holders are holding. Is it good manipulation, or strickly day trading mathmatics, in and out by days end, that is droping the SP?
IMHO I think its the day trading mathmatics, because true day trading does not account for any coming news. In and out in the same day, and hold nothing over night.
There may be some trading houses or holders watching the day trading patterns and watching for volume strick points, for the odd time they can grab a good volume of stock, at a good price, like last week with some big volume some days, with no or little increased in SP. and let the day trader math pull the stock back down for the next few days. Just my thought there.
Cause, the way I see it is, anybody with any expectations are waiting on the Nov 14th GOBLET. Why would you be selling right now with GOBLET 4 weeks away, unless your trading pattern does not account for up coming news, like day traders.
My hopes for Nov 14th:
I am hoping that it is no coincidence that the AWARE-1 final data is being released the same day as the GOBLET.
AWARE-1 was set up to capture a bio-marker and supposedly they found/comfirmed two. So, I am hoping that the AWARE-1 results are full disclosure at this timeon bio-markers.
So state... YES! We have confirmed two bio-markers.
I am also hoping to hear final efficacy., it was 1
or 2 in five patients responded, with pele is 4 in 5, or what every that number is.
BRACELET-1 was to my understanding, not to confirm bio-markers, but to determine Method Of Action (MOA), Thus the resulting prelim comments regarding... medical molecule as they have been moving through BRACELET-1.
So... to the best of my understanding, ONC in the release of the final AWARE-1 data should be able to release confirmation of the two bio-markers. Hopefully!
This would be HUGE!
Then with GOBLET, i am hoping they release new data that continues on the track of the first three patients, and also release a comment that patients selected for the GOBLET were based on the two confirmed Bio-markers in mBC, and the bio-markers are working for gastro, and thus the reason for good results with every selected patient. Hoping !
This would be HUGE !
Add in all added patients experienced a similar average of 48% reduction after 16 weeks, then how much more resulting reduction after 64 weeks, or longer. I am expecting it to be more than 48%.
75% maybe ? We can only hope right now.
This would be HUGE !
So, with only smaller volumes of stock available, along with the type of NR with the data I am hoping for is released, the SP will quickly jump to over $5 NASDAQ, and watch what that does to the SP as some of the short termers bail on news, with still limited retail stock available, and as institutional buyers want in and want larger volumes of stock.
This would be HUGE !
My expectations would be that, if this type of NR is relseased Nov 14th, not just more 'well tollerated', that the SP will exceed the previously posted trading house double diget target prices.
At which that time, ROCHE's involvement with AWARE-1 is wrapped.
ROCHE knows exactly what pela does with Tecentriq and efficacy there.
Tecentriq is 66% of ROCHE's annual revenue.
ROCHE recenty bought another drug company for about $1.2B that appearently makes pela work better (I believe Noteable posted that info here a while back).
ROCHE is into a second combination drug therapy with pela for Gastro in the GOBLET.
The results there with 48% reductions in 16 weeks is unheard of, with the closest being only about 23% long term with other drugs.
So if the GOBLET NR is as promising as the first 3 patients....
ROCHE would be sitting on a second combination drug therapy with pela, and the FDA would push gastro into an accellerated Phase IIi trial.
So TWO Phase III studies, and possibly both accelerated trials.
I see absolutely no reason why ROCHE would sit back and wait for Pfizer to decide what Pfizer wants to do, and risk Pela slipping through ROCHE's hands.
I still favour ROCHE for a buyout, and before Pfizer gets too far into their 90 day exclusivity period.
Hoping! Its coming fast... only 4 weeks away from what could be a HUGE change.