RE:RE:Canaccord Genuity: Spec. Buy rating & C$3.50 target for CREI was thinking similar thoughts tiger...CG can't just say permit in 1 month or end of year so I'll give them that.
Some other points to consider in this report!
It is rather funny if you read the PMET analysis where they went really aggressive, blue sky all in huge potential 100 m tonnes deposit based on drill holes and pegmetite showings not even drilled, 6-10 years behind CRE, making one massively HUGE assumption about the size of deposit to give a 1-2 billion value depending on extent of drilling...they did admit alot of the drill holes are 40 metres under a lake and might be a bit of a challenge, nice of them to mention that.
Then with CRE they turn ultra conservative.
Extended permitting end of 2023. So adding another 14 months after an already exhausting 5 years 8 months of COMEX review. I don't believe it. In the project pipeline Page(9) they add a year onto CRE managements production target moving it to 2026 yet they believe all these other management targets, so Sayona NAL, Allkem, Roc Tech, Livent/Nemaska, Sayona's Moblan will all be in production before CRE....Green Tech Metals which they also cover in depth in the report shows their Seymor deposit will be in production 1 quarter later than CRE yet they don't even have a PEA completed. Really GC.
The 3.50 base case target is modelled on the following.
Phase 1 and 2 completed with and equity investment AND an additional 450 million needed to be raised.
280 million additional shares issued at 1.60ish to fund constuction for both phase 1 and then phase 2...
A phase one raise at 1.60 and a phase 2 raise at 1.60, calling B.S. on this.
They also model SC6 selling prices as 1500 for chemical grade and 3000 for technical grade and 22,500 for hydroxide. The SC prices are at approximately a 30% discount to CRE updated Feasability where pricing was done by retaining Garitt Fuelling, the most respected source for pricing analysis, but GC chose to use their own models. Ok
They do have an upside bull case (Page 88) where the target price could reach 5.38
if all the following are achieved.
F 20% higher equity raise price gets target to $3.86
(So 20% higher than their very low 1.60 equity raise estimate)
G 10% decrease in operating costs gets target to $4.00
(So a10% decrease to their 23% increase in forecast Operating cost est)
H 20% decrease in initial capital gets to $4.28
(a 20% decrease to their 20 % forecast increase in CAPEX)
I 10% increase in realized price gets $5.00
(a 10% increase to their 30% discounted SC prices that management used.)
J 5-Year mine life extension gets to their top of the mark rip roaring bull case price of $5.38
(5 years is about 10million tonnes new resource based on our current deposti size. That's all GC could see based on all our land package, all strikes being open, drills turning but somehow PMET is 100 million tonne resource)
Given where the stock is trading perhaps everyone is happy to see 3.50-5.38 price range.
GC forgive me for crumpling up your report, lighting a match and throwing it into the fireplace!
cheers