Starsearcher80 wrote: Hello BBDB859
Yes, I'm a trader. On rare occasion (very rare occasion), I'll take a longer term position, but the conditions for that have to be just about perfect. And even then, it's not a good mesh with my nature or personality. I know my niche, I do it well, and anything else tries my patience something fierce. I've often said in my next life, I want to be an investor. But in this life, yes, it's rare.
90% of my position, which is now overweighted to the point of stupidity, is in at an average of $20.00 Those rare conditions for the buy were truly perfect, and when I see those I typically take a heavy full swing.
But there's a problem. Yes, on the more recent dip, 2 or three times now, I've taken on three additional trading positions, averaged in at about $25.50ish on the whole. But I problem is, I haven't traded them as I would normally have done, because I still think there is a far bigger gain to come in the near term. Am I tricking myself, calling it a trade but really adding to a core position that I swore was big enough? Maybe so!
Additionally, the position for me is now SO substantial that the capital gains I would pay would be pure torture. If I wait out this multi month period that I expect the bigger gain for Bombardier, which puts me into the new year, and I'm right, then I get the gain AND keep the taxman at bay for another full year. This allows me to make further money on the money I would have otherwise given to the government. and I'm much more content to play with their money any time.
Generally speaking, I follow a very rigid set of rules. With my position in Bombardier right now, I'm breaking a lot of those rules. But why? Because that rare extremely potent opportunity IS there. And not only is it there, but the conditions for those gains are improving even more now.
I've been around this block for about 40 years now. Seen it all. But this, a hugely overweighted investment position, AND feeling extremely comfortable and confident?? Well,that has only happened a handful of times. To my memory, actually only about 4 times, which would average out to once per decade. The other three times were massive wins. Hopefully this full swing on Bombardier will be the fourth. I have every confidence with what I'm seeing that this will in fact be the case.
BBDB859 wrote: Hi Star.
Welcome.
Thank you for the nice post about your excellent thoughts bellow. I think we both have a lot of shares here, and are overweighted in this stock. I'm not a day trader. I just happened to accumulated a lot of this stock over the years. Although I understand from our past conversations that, you do trade daily. I hope you picked up a few shares to trade on this recent $25 drop. If you want to make a quick buck, you could sell they for a nice payday. Or hold them if you wish?
I've tried to time the dips of this stock in the past, and ended up just holding on what I've bought because the share price kept dipping down. That's another reason why I have so many shares. Hopefully if I see a few paterns develop from now on, then I may trade it. But for me to want to go to the trading route? I have to see the upward patern, instead of the just the downward patern over the years. Ten times bit, 20 times shy.
Cheers
Starsearcher80 wrote: Nice post BBDB859. Thank you. I agree fully with everything you've said here. Absolutely, there is manipulation of the share price, and what looks to be a very active effort either to shake shares out, and/or box the stock. A lot of shareholders get really annoyed by this. Personally, ok it's annoying, but I take it as an absolute sign that some big entities want a LOT of shares, and are willing to activiely play whatever game possible to get those shares. While annoying, it IS ultimately a massive vote of confidence for the stock.
The other point too is once these entities have the shares they want (often at an overall increasing price by the way), they will then actively promote and move the stock to much higher levels. Of course, we don't seem to complain about that manipulation as much...don't know why. ;)
The accumulation pattern for Bombardier has, at times been vicious starting with the forced drop to $18. The second round of vicious, down to $24ish from $34ish I really didn't anticipate (I'm still annoyed by that), but the overall market certainly contributed to the effort and made it easy. And sure enough, now we're seeing accumulation at levels that are now regularly increasing. If I had to guess, I think the accumulation phase is coming to an end very soon. We're now going into anticipation of the 3rd and then 4th quarter, both of which will cast the company in a very strong (and more important, sustained) light. It makes sense to motivate that stock upwards, along with the strong updraft that will already be their courtesy of the quarterly numbers and sentiment.
These games, overall, are fairly predictable when there is very good reason to get into a stock, as is the case with Bombardier. Do I expect a strong updraft here starting now and through the next few months? Absolutely. While you can't fight those forces, you certainly can know the game(s) and play along with them. Imho, the move up from here will be powerful, if not the kind of move we all think is well deserved for the stock.
Enjoy.
BBDB859 wrote: Hi Club.
I hope your last half of the summer was good. Mine was good. Although Europe is realing with all kinds problems right now, If you're not travelling in the EU you're ok. This time I changed my normal mentality, of travel to other European countries, while I'm in Europe. Because of this chaos.
Macro is affecting the commercial aviation industry for the time being. But the BJ are travelling all over the place. This just goes to show how the ultra rich don't have the same travelling restrictions. They're all making more money with this upheaval. In fact they're travelling more.
This will boad well for the Bomber. The backlog will grow in Q3 and thus provide a cushion for their LTD repayment. As far as how much the market controls, or to your point manipulates the Bomber SP? I don't think that we can control what their actions and reasons for that manipulation are. I do know one thing though. They can't keep the price the down to pre-split levels with such a small float.
The Market Makers are going to take this SP up once they've accumulated most of the the shares during this manipulation period. I noticed that they took the price down to around $25 while I was away. But then they've moved it back up to more realistic values at $30. To me even $30 is much less, than the stock value. In my mind the share value is more in the $120 range. But at this point it's hard to justify those high SP's even with a small float. The point being that 2023 is the turnaround point, and I'm picking March 28th/2023 as that date. The LTD is the key there, and more of it is going to be paid down in 2023. The key indicator for the Plan is, the FCF. If Revenues and +FCF will all start rising in 2023. Then we'll know that EM's Plan is working.
BTW. Every stock is feeling this pain right now. So I think we're holding our own here given the enviroment we're in. Cheers
clubhouse19 wrote: 859
The question is not really whether the bomber is turning the itself around as we can assume confidently that it is, but rather whether the market has seen the bottom yet. There is going to be multiple bear market rallies as you have seen and are seeing now as far as I am concerned.
The shorting during the last 2 weeks IMO tells me it is
.
BBDB859 wrote: from the high of $34.
I'm sure those gains will be returned soon, & more, as the Q4 ER will be coming in a few of weeks.
Sham/July what's the final tally on the Q3/22 deliveries, from your best estimation. The Bomber had to deal with some Engine delivery delays, as we know from the last ER in Q2/22, but hopefully they weren't major for the Quarter.
Some thoughts.
I'm hoping that we are all thankful for the BT sale. That was a great move, by Bombardier.
-They were able to save what was left of the company.
-They paid down the LTD.
-They have cash on hand to pay down debt even further in the years to come.
-They are focussed on the one industry that was profitable for them.
-I'm sure the Backlog in the BJ industry will keep growing.
-Hopefully this ordeal with the French theves from Alstom will be over soon.
-Alstom is just wasting time, so they don't have to pay the rest of the money.
-I'm sure we could have gotten more for BT. But this was the destiny of BT.
-For the cheaper sale to Alstom, we got a great upside from the BJ's for 2 years.
This quarter will show us the continuation of the +FCF Quarters of the future. I can't wait for the total transformation of the company, when all the Service Centers are completed by the end of the year. Then the completion of Pearson is nearly here as well, in H1/23, which will change the total Revenue ability of the company. So keep your hats on BBD.B LT Investors, your payday will finally be here in 2023. You all deserve it, it's been a long time coming.