RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Designing the basket trialsFrom my perspective, which could be incorrect as it often has been previously, it is appropriate to be more concerned about the TH-1902 efficacy outcome now. No one should be totally freaked out because there is plenty of time left to get to the result we are hoping for, but by not adding anything factual to our knowledge about TH-1902's safety or efficacy with the third quarter results - five months into an open label trial targetting the types of cancer where preclinical work suggested TH should see quick results - investors have every right to be wondering why there was no new info shared, particularly after setting expectations higher with some of the comments management made in the two months prior to the financial results release. Instead of taking a step towards derisking the TH-1902 program as Wino is looking for, the risk either stayed the same or moved a bit higher, depending on your perspective.
Now, TH could be trying to arrange things to where they first show in their poster presentation at the European cancer meeting next week that a very high percentage of most cancer tumors overexpress sortiliin receptors and then reveal some efficacy info after that to build the story that the scope of what TH-1902 might be able to do in solid tunors is huge.
If we go beyond the end of the year without additional efficacy news then the risk goes higher again. Let's hope the derisking process starts in earnest before then as Christian seemed to suggest.
PWIB123 wrote: SPCEO1 is making me nervous. I think I'm encouraged that the scientists are seemingly getting more comfortable and satisfying themselves with speculative plausible explanations for gaps in understanding. I just cannot get over our legal counsel selling, considering he has to be privy to many details. He used the words, got burned in the past. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty in my mind surrounding that decision. I'm glad we are as cheap as we should be, but it's super uncomfortable holding through all the mixed signals right now. I think you all have convinced me that the lack of announced and confirmed efficacy could simply be process. Paul still gave a range that went to year end, but he did establish incorrect expectations.The next 90 days cannot come soon enough.
Wino115 wrote: We can do without the slurs, please. One can argue the sum of the parts valuation many ways, but the ongoing business would be valued at less than 2.6x revenues which is on the lower end of biotech ranges. Most, with similar kinds of mixed revenue and pipeline assets, trade higher. I think it would only be negatively affected if safety became a bigger issues (which I don't see happening and they still have the flexibility to lower the dose if they see it given they concentrate the toxin) or no efficacy at all. We've seen it worked on 4 patients we know of, so we'll see some kind of effect. The questions are how much, where, and when in my view.
PinnacleX wrote: SPCEO1 wrote: And sales growth has seemed to be reinvigorated so investors might actually be willing to pay something for it. Probably not as much as we would like but it does offer downside protection if they can keep that progress going. If tomorrow TH reported that cancer was a dud, analysts would not likely change their price targets on the stock as they do not yet include anything for cancer. It will be interesting to see what Truist does regarding valuing cancer if they come out with a report this week or sometime soon. I would expect they also would not put a value on it as most analysts will not at this early stage of a drug's development. But they may couch things regarding cancer in more positive language than the other analysts have so far. Truist is the result of some bank mergers and the brokerage arm of the bank was historically known as Robinson Humphrey, which tended to specialize in smaller companies. It is possible they could get some of their small cap institutional investors interested in THTX. The meetings they are setting up for THTX this week are in New York City.
While whatever Truist might be able to do to create interest in THTX, the stock will really move when and if they have favorable news on cancer and Wino's derisking checklist gets shorter.
Biobob wrote: At least we don't have billions of phony valuation backing Th1902... it's priced at sweet nothing atm... ok we can go down stupid on failure but Thera is cashflow positive if it scraps all the pipeline spending... can't say as much for most of biotech cos...
Do you really believe in some of the things you write? its so crazy. So in your head sales growth has seemed to be reinvigorated?? lol how? no evidence of that whatsoever. And if Cancer was a dud analyists wouldnt change anything LOL just laugabale. Go plug in some numbers and get a valuation for this company with its current EPS and youll see that this thing is still about a dollar overvalued. The only thing that keeps this SP where it is is Cancer you big goof.