SPCEO1 wrote: It makes no sense to sell prior to hearing about the efficacy/safety in phase 1b as the upside far, far outweighs to downside. Also, there is enough evidence to give one confidence TH-1902 has a decent chance of working in some manner that will propel the stock much higher. And while the conference call last week was a dud, I did not sense that management was uncomfortable talking about TH-1902. They seemed confident to me. They are simply not good at understanding investor's needs and meeting the moment with info that will keep investors happy. And while there undoubtedly be some investors exiting the stock if TH-1902 turns out to not work, the legacy business will allow the stock to recover to a level at least around $2 after that exit is complete. THTX is not MDGL. If MDGL's NASH trial is a failure, there is nothing else. The stock tanks and never recovers. Also, my best guess is we will not have to wait until the mid-February Q4 financial results before we hear more about efficacy.
People sell for all sorts of reasons and, unfortunately, those reasons multiply in a bear market. The big mistake most investors make, especially during bear markets or bubble tops, is that the stock price movement is telling you something important when it is really only telling you some investors have lost their minds (at a bubble top) or are facing a margin call (bear market lows) or something akin to that. Stay focused on the fundamentals and don't let share price movements, higher or lower, toy with your emotions too much. The truth always wins in the end despite the madness that it ahs to contend with along the way.
Historically, the period from the Q3 report to the Q4 report has been both long and devoid of meaningful info from THTX. So, if THTX is unable or unwilling to fill that 4 month gap with meaningful news, then it could be a rough road for the stock for a while as people let their emotions rule over their reason. Many investors will undoubtedly tire of the long wait despite that potentially being one of the most regrettable things they ever did (as we know cancer news is on the horizon and it could be very good, even transformative for THTX). Don't be that investor who let's their emotions overcome a reasoned analysis of the situation. We will get results on TH-1902 and 4 months, if it takes that long, is not a long period of time.
It is worth remembering that even if THTX never overcomes its challenges on the shareholder commmunciations front and never is able to "read the room" well regarding investors, if the cancer data is good, none of that will matter too much. Unless someone can produce meaningful evidence suggesting TH-1902 is a dead initiative, the only sensible thing to do is to hold on. You don't want to be that investor telling friends in your old age about the one you let get away. Particularly when there is really no long term downside from the current level of the share price. In a worst case scenario, which I would only give about a 10-15% chance of happening, you have to wait a while for the bad news and then wait a while longer after that for the stock to digest the selling from those in it just for cancer. Then the stock should return to current levels or higher based on the prospects of the legacy drug business, which seem to be improving. If THTX maintains a 15-20% sales growth on that legacy drug business, the stock should sell meaningfully higher than the current price. No one right now is paying a dime for cancer (or NASH for that matter). Its free! That is a sweet deal. If cancer were to fail soon, the analysts currently follwoing the stock should not lower their price targets or ratings as they have nothing in their models for cancer (which is normal,rarional analyst behavior until you get good phase 1 results).
Remember, THTX is trying to model IMMU. If they are even half successful,or even a quarter as successful, at that, it will be an amazing ride. And no one is paying even a penny for that potential right now.
PWIB123 wrote: Will no one answer? You all have very large positions, and I'm at 90K+ shares at a higher price point. I used to think there was a floor on the stock, but we are seeing the share price prove it can go lower. With what appears to be another very dry period from any new updates until end of next quarter, we have significant risk in losing more value. I was counting on consistent and more frequent opportunities for THTX to provide updates that I thought would begin to garner awareness and increase share value. While anything could happen, I think we have to be honest and conclude we are more than likely 6 months away from anything statistically meaningful, and that it can be good or bad. In the meantime, we can go lower. Many of you have referred to this as a loterry ticket. Are you all holding regardless or are any of you de-risking your positions as this goes lower? It only takes one seller to drive the stock down as as we saw yesterday, there is no one willing to counter the price decrease, so it sits at the lower end. Is this all or nothing right up until it's not or do you all feel like we'll get interim information that will help prop the stock value up? Nothing THTX has done seems to work toward that end.
PWIB123 wrote: It is maddening seeing the stock price drop on the heels of preliminary efficacy, improving sales, and such huge prospects with TH-1902. Question, how low will you watch the stock drop before you throw in the towel? Or are you going to hold until the results come out regardless of what happens, because you believe that much in the prospect of success? I'm all in and expecting to endure some more pain. It already hurts pretty bad though.
Wino115 wrote: Funny, and fair enough. Maybe you sneak in to her bedroom and see if you can get a glimpse of her bank statement thinking some of the deficiencies can be overcome that way. You thought you saw a few commas in there, a tantalizing clue as to what could be. But you want to know if it's 2 commas or 4 commas! Your mood could change in a moment.
We're in that difficult part. We know a little (pre-clinical efficacy, safety and a tad of human efficacy), but not enough to dispel doubts. Positive vibes aren't enough, but that's all we'll get until the big reveal at some point in the near future. Is it ,, or ,,,,
stockman75 wrote: The easy on the eyes girl that keeps stringing you along. Says all the right things when she needs to especially when you insinuate your interest is waning or you question her integrity... She absolutely never commits. Keeps playing coy and very good at the games... Then you start to wonder is she worth it. Is she a fake? Then she starts to look not so hot, even a tad bit ugly. Is it just she isn't wearing enough makeup today? Or is it that all the makeup is just obscuring her real looks? Or maybe there is some real beauty there and she is just confused and not sure what to do.
That's where I am at the moment.