KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WORLDI think it's a fair and prudent comment to say that while I'm very pleased with Bombardier, I'm also very nervous about where things in Ukraine currently stand. I'm not sure how closely people follow the situation, but I'll try and capsulize my own thoughts here.
1) So Putin starts a war he thinks he can win easily, and TOTALLY underestimates both the Ukrainian people and their resolve, and the immense aid from Nato countries. Early victories turn to stalled advances, turn to retreats and heavy losses for the Russians.
2) Nato continues to beef up the Ukrainian firepower, and now the Ukrainian military is making notable advances on multiple fronts. Putin starts to show signs of becoming unglued, and brings in convicts and untrained conscripts. The top General for the war is basically fired, and Putin brings in his most ruthless leader who has absolutely NO morals at all, not that war is a moral thing in the first place.
3) Two weeks ago, Putin declares the 4 occupied regions as belonging to Russia, and puts up a not so veiled nuclear threat, stating he will use any and all means at his disposal if necessary. He is condemned for these comments by Nato forces, but the discussion is out there whether he would actually use tactical nukes on Ukraine. These are "backpack" nukes or "battlefield nukes" with a low yield but absolutely devastating just the same. Biden warns Putin not to do anything of the sort, saying that we are now closer to nuclear armageddon (Biden's words) than at any point since the Cuban missle crises in 1962.
4) So then Putin declares martial law in the 4 regions. In Kherson, in the southern region, he has now decided to evacuate EVERYONE because he's now supposedly worried about the Ukrainian advances. Well to me this seems very odd and makes no sense. He certainly wasn't worried about evacuating anyone when he bombed the Hell out of it in the first place to take it over. But now he is taking everyone out?
5) There are now reports that he is taking out his peoplee who were in charge of the region, and possibly withdrawing the military as well, although the reports are not conclusive. There are also reports that he is replacing military there with conscripts that have no military skills at all.
6) One of the most devious tactics of the Russians, one they've used multiple times, is what is called a "false flag". It's where they accuse the enemy of doing something, but really the Russians do it to themselves, as an excuse to escalate against the other side.
7) Well sure enough, we now have the Russian defense secretary doing EXACTLY that, saying that they have it on good authority that Ukraine is planning to use a "dirty bomb", which is a convential bomb packed with uranium that will contaminate. It's not a nuclear weapon exactly, but kind of is. Of course Ukraine completely denies this, as does Nato. But if a "dirty bomb" were to go off in say....Kherson region, well of course this would give Russia to "retaliate" (even though they did it in the first place) with their own tactical/battlefield nukes.
8) I think the most scary thing is that the Russian defence secretary has now called the defense secretaries of Britain, France, Turkey and the United States to say how sure they are that Ukraine is actually going to do this. That kind of escalation by the Russians is completely foolish and absolutely dangerous.
8) I think the most danerous place for Putin is to be alone with his back to the wall, and that's exactly where he is right now. Losing a war, and eventually losing his country. What's the best thing he faces? A war crimes tribunal??? There's really no way out for him...no offramp, and he's only surrounded by absoute hardliners right now that have said openly that nuclear IS an option.
Please note: I absolutely HATE thinking about such things. But you have to keep an eye on the crazy world, because it's one blink away from a true black swan event for the market. If Putin were to set up that false flag, the market would be instantly crushed.
I seriously debated even writing this post. It sickens me in many ways. But if our obligation is to safeguard our investment, then we have to also look beyond just the company prospects to the global concerns that can absolutely affect our good intentions in this or any other stock. So I'll post this in my own disgust that this is even something we have to consider, and I won't respond or discuss it further here because it seriously gets me upset. If you want to learn further in real-time, just do your own google search on "Putin nuclear false flag".
Enough from me on this disgusting thought.