OPEC wants $90 Oil, economy wants $70 OilIf OPEC is after $90 Oil and Oil is forecasted to be at $88 for the last quarter of the year that leaves little room to head higher if we are at $85 now, I think that the FED intervention in fighting higher inflation will push Oil lower regardless of the 2Mil bpd cut by OPEC and it shows in the market today with Oil having a hard time staying over $85 and as I mentioned along with the Whitehouse, forcing Oil to head higher as the economy contracts will cause greater pain for the economy and will cause the economy to crash faster as money becomes tighter because of interest rates. The FED and the economy will dominate Oils movement vs OPEC and tighter conditions and If Oil somehow hits $95 I suggest selling because it won't stay there long. This week has been flat so far and since today failed in attracting enough traders to push Oil higher tomorrow could see Oil lower if overseas sell off again and US traders give up running Oil higher only to have it sell off through the day. I see lower Oil coming this week.
Commodity Forecast 2022/2023 (tradingeconomics.com) Overall, it's becoming increasingly hard to make the case that crude oil should be above $90 a barrel by the end of the year. The risk for OPEC+ is that if it does try to force the price to stay at that level by restricting supply, it will only provoke a deeper and longer global recession.