RE:RE:Forecast 2023Jeez Moe I think you made the Easter Bunny shyte it's fur, might have overloaded it's basket. NO Easter eggs for you, just O&G rising share prices and perhaps with a side order of dividends.
Maxmoe wrote: Welcome newbie. Love your chocolate turds. Have you heard of dyodd? It stands for do your own due diligence. You didn't ask, but here's my 3 cents worth. Every analyst on Bay Street has a forecast for 2023. Most will be wrong. Granted BSW does a more thorough job than some of those analysts and certainly more thorough than anyone else on this board. He can still be thorough and wrong. As in thoroughly wrong. As a newbie, I'd advise not focusing on the minutiae, but watch the big picture. Oil prices and investor interest in oil producers. Balance sheet big picture. I don't follow bsw but I bet he has useful ideas on those subjects as well. Bte has bought back shares using the NCIB on autopilot every single day since it started in May. So it's safe to assume that will continue. At $85 oil, there will be so much FCF, the 10% max from the NCIB may not be enough, they may need to do a substantial issuer bid as well. Debt repayment is still a top priority as it should be. You didn't ask about debt, but it's still vitally important. Especially if rates keep climbing and we roll into a recession outside alberta. I feel like mgmt is slow walking us into more capex on Clearwater wells. A lot more. As Eric is fond of exclaiming, these wells pay for themselves in a matter of weeks, or several months, then it's all free cash flow again. It's inevitable oil producers won't be returning 75-100% of cash flow forever. Eventually, probably in 2023, we're going to see more capex, more M&A activity, more land purchases etc. they just can't help themselves when they are so flush with cash. It will become survival of the riskiest again with buy or get bought being the mantra. That's when you'll know it's time to sell ALL the oil producers. Big picture. Not whether is 5X or 6X cash flow. Good luck. See you April 9th.
Easterbunny2 wrote: A lot of good info. on the board.
Enquiring if BSW or others, have modeled mid '23 or EOY '23 SP? Assuming oil 85 avg over '23, ignore currency changes, use of FCF buybacks and distributions as announced?