EBITDA Multiples updated...For the Health and pharma Sector's worldwide (by year) are still ranging between
10 and 30
for 2022 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030111/enterprise-value-to-ebitda-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-worldwide/
Lets use Spectral's presentation EBITDA calc's for PMX using the average of between 35 and 45% penetration, or roughly $ 200M USD
Let's also use THE MOST CONSERVATIVE MULTIPLE to arraive a a "value" for PMX
$ 200M x 10 = $ 2B USD
Say fully diluted is 350M shares
$ 5.71 USD or $ 7.71/sh CAD
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030111/enterprise-value-to-ebitda-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-worldwide/
Remembering that this calc:
- uses the low end of industry averages (high end = 3X higher)
- excludes Cdn usage of PMX (add 10% based on population)
- excludes EAA revenues (worldwide and usage beyond just in conjunction with PMX)
- ingnores possible use of PMX for a subset of severe Covid-19 patients (as advocated first by Ronco and now apparently by Kellum)
- ignores the potential for broader label usage and PMX for other conditions (Eden?)
- ignores studies showing the advanatage of additional cartridges in many cases (Eden?)
- ignores the possibility/hypothesis of under-dosing in certain situations (e.g EAA >.9) (Eden?)
- uses Spectral's EBITDA numbers (includiing >5 year old Sepsis stats for the US) - when we know that Sepsis is definitely on teh increase (some say growing at 8% per year)