A few things.....
Been in this stock for about 4 years through the ups and downs. Overall, I really like the story and the resource. Largely tried to trade the broader ranges around a core long position. In that regard I have done quite well.
I will admit to underestimating the magnitude of this pullback. With that said I havent sold and am likely adding to my position. I am trying to navigate how much of this is broader market sentiment / liquidity related, and how much is actually company / story specific.
Obviously the overall Lithium backdrop and the related news flow has remained quite positive. There has certainly been plenty of tailwind around the major battery investments and supply deals for automakers going on in the Canadian landscape. FL SHOULD be front and center in those discussions given the quality of the deposit, the geographical location and the solid Walker related experience.
My very first reaction to the news of the PP with RBC & Goldman Sachs as leads was positive. The stock had been acting reasonably well and I assume their involvement is a precursor to coverage. Particularly considering the unusually stark positive RBC note that was sent out to clients the week before the PP.
But there is no denying the sloppiness post deal hasnt been fun. The message to me is that this deal wasnt particularly well distributed ( at least not initially ) and clearly there are those questioning the timing.
There has been rumbling for some time about prospective deals pending, playing into the narrative of the Federal and Ontario governments courting new investment. I think its safe to say that I wasnt alone in expecting that the NEXT inflow of capital to come from some sort of non dilutive JV / supply agreement with a reputable partner.
I dont think i was alone in expecting the PFS update to also add strength and credibility to this whole story. The drill results have been extraordinary, the estimated reserves and potential expansion are exciting, and obviously increasing the input price of Li would combine to make it all look quite impressive.
So, instead of the long telegraphed Q4 PFS, and the suggestion of some kind of meaningful deal.... we get further delays and a rather sloppy financing. Bottom line, thats frustrating.
I am kinda surprised at the animosity directed to Ttinto here, because I think he or she is much closer to being right than wrong given how things have unfolded. Obviously hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20, but as ridethewinners said, how on earth does the BoD and Management not do a financing into the almost exponential stock move if you knew ( or even suspected ) that the PFS was likely not coming as forecast and/or deals werent coming together ?? Thats just conservative management ABC
Look, I know some people involved, and have had the pleasure of meeting Trevor. BUT I absolutely dont know the inside machinations well enough to be overly critical. Overall, I like the non-promotional nuts and bolts conservative approach that the family has taken.
HOWEVER..... this business is at a crossroad. It has huge potential, and it almost certainly is at a point where it needs some seasoned front line public mine company experience at the table.
I am not suggesting fire Trevor, but rather do go HIRE someone with specific leadership / execution track record in the space to worth with him and the family.
I have fairly extensive institutional capital market experience. What I can say unequivocally is the IR for this company is a D minus at best. And THAT is simply not acceptable. The BoD should know better.
Despite best buddies intentions, this aspect of the business needs to be handled professionally and proactively. I am not advocating some huge fluffly promotion approach. But I am advocating aggressively getting the story into the hands of those that have leverage to buy the stock. Right now that is frankly attrocious. Hopefully the involvement of RBC and GS can help get the right Institutional investors into this story along with thousands of new retail eyeballs so that the true potential can be understood and the price reflect more of the opportunity as it seems to with many other companies in the space.
The post deal performance of this RBC / GS deal suggests that the marketing of this deal was an abject failure. No matter how you sugar coat it, thats on Trevor and his IR guys. The institutional guys should have been all over this at this valuation....
I sincerely hope at a minimum that these guys are going out of their way to court RBC and GS analysts for coverage initiation, and refinement of the story