RE:RE:RE:Forecast 2023I don't recall seeing a sensitivity analysis for different levels of buybacks broadly speaking, or for any producer. Not just bte. Typically companies don't limit out on their NCIB allowance so the variation in the share count is immaterial. Especially if you add back in dilution from option exercises and warrants if applicable. But if you're looking for an algebraic, all else being equal, other than share count, I'd start with, the premise is false. Never ever is all else equal. But the very simplest math would suggest a 5% decrease in shares outstanding, all being equal, would mean per share everything will be higher by 100/95 = 5.26%. So assuming all else equal includes cash flow per share multiples, Eps multiples, navps multiples etc etc, then yeah the stock price would be 5.26% higher. Did I mention all else is never equal?
Easterbunny2 wrote: Thanks BSW,
My curiosity is around a value that buybacks/cancelled shares offer. Appreciating there's a positive correlation and assuming everything else constant-does a 10% reduction in o/s shares equate to a 1%, 10% or 20% increase in share price. Clearly never would work out so academically, but is there a formula or model which serves as a starting point? I just don't see the analysts adding in the value of buybacks I.e. 9 PT at 85 WTI but their models seem to ignore share count. Am I missing something?