RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Forecast 2023Easterbunny2 wrote: Thanks Max, that's helpful. I get that variables are....well variable, maybe I'm thinking about this wrong. If you double share count the value at that point in time drops by half, all other factors constant. So maybe I should just be looking for a baseline share count reduction as the inverse and scenario from there. (And don't cr-p on me for using scenario as a verb). I guess at the end of the day, where is the point where reducing gshare count vs issuing dividend occurs. There needs to be a marginal threshold.
I think you are looking for a concrete answer where one doesn't exist. There's no formula and little consistency from one exec team to the next. What you can do is look at the company's messaging. 75% of fcf to debt until they reach 800m, which is expected early in the new year. Then it is 50/50 debt buybacks until the debt gets to 400, at which point they may not drive it lower (we'll see what the new CEO says about that). So probably looking at about 500m in buybacks.
The question is what will they do at 400? Certainly no later than one year from today they'll need to bring some clarity on that. My guess would be the Q3 results release in 2023. Ed has talked about initiating a dividend but only if it is meaningful and sustainable. By the time debt gets to 400, the share float will be under 500, so a buck a share will cost less than 500. I suspect that number to be sustainable down at 55 wti