RE:My heart is in the right placeObscure1, I can accept that some of your data could be true regarding high adoption rates in China, and perhaps some other more well off countries. indeed, looking at some parts of the market, the future is bright for EVs there.
I also agree with you that we will see more and more EVs with time.
In 2020, there were 1.31 billion light duty vehicles, and in 2050 there will be 2.21 billion LDVs. That's nearly a double.
Non OECD countries will see the largest ICE growth, while OECD countries will see the largest EV growth.
That means there is a lot of life left for the ICE vehicle on our roadways. We are still many years away from peak global ICE vehicle use, like 16 years more, in 2038 as per EIA forecasts. After that there it will plateau, then will start to decline.
That gives us at least 16 more years of constant rising fuel demand as there will be more and more ICE vehicles on the road globally.
In perspective, as the entire light duty vehicle transportation sector is only 12% of present global oil consumption, losses of a few percent are almost irrelevant anyway in a decade, compared with the exhaustion and decrease of global supply by then, largely due to the lack of capital investment in oil, and reservoir depletion. With this in mind, I am not concerned if or when universal EV adoption will kill 12% of the oil market anytime soon.
Here's some more data about the big picture regarding the future of the global LDV fleets, consisting of EV and ICE vehicles:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50096 
In our International Energy Outlook 2021, we estimate the global light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet contained 1.31 billion vehicles in 2020, and we project this fleet will grow to 2.21 billion vehicles by 2050. We project electric vehicles (EVs)—any LDV with a charging plug—will grow from 0.7% of the global LDV fleet in 2020 to 31% in 2050, reaching 672 million vehicles. Significant growth in EV sales and shares of sales through the projection period results in the global conventional gasoline and diesel LDV fleet peaking in 2038.
We project that an increase in economic activity, population, and private mobility will result in more global LDVs through 2050. We project the population of non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries will grow at over three times the population growth rate of OECD countries and that the non-OECD motorization rate will increase from 92 vehicles per thousand people to 173 vehicles per thousand people between 2020 and 2050. The OECD countries’ motorization rate remains around 530 vehicles per thousand people through the projection period. Because of this growth in population and motorization rates, we project the number of LDVs in non-OECD countries will surpass those in OECD countries in 2025.
The 2020 global LDV fleet primarily consists of conventional gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles, but sales of EVs are projected to grow due to recent technology and policy developments. In our International Energy Outlook 2021, EVs include both full battery, all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that are primarily powered by liquid fuels when batteries are nearly depleted.
We project EV fleet shares will reach 34% in OECD countries and 28% in non-OECD countries by 2050. Although the conventional LDV fleet peaks in 2023 for OECD countries, faster growth in the non-OECD fleet results in nearly two-thirds of light-duty EVs being in non-OECD countries by 2050.
Obscure1 wrote: I'm enjoying the discussion guys. Good on ya for sharing and contributing.
As part of my bad habit of wanting to be "right" about everything :) I offer the following data on the most current published EV adoption rates:
* Chinese electric vehicle sales for the first half of 2022 have hit 31 percent of the overall market (with 25 percent being pure EVs).
* As of 5 days ago, the numbers have changed to 35% with 26% being pure electric cars.
* China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to reach 6.62 million units in 2022 and 10.36 million units in 2023.
A number of posters here have brought up the point that poor people living in poor countries without an electrical infrastructure wont be able to afford EV's.
The poorest countries in the world (the bottom10 are: Burundi, Somalia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Sierra Leonem, Afghanastan, Cental African Republic, Liberia, Niger, and Zaire) may indeed take a long time to be ready EV's. The total popultion of the bottom 5 countries is less than 100 million people.
On the other hand, China (1.4 billion population) is leading the world in EV adoption rates.
India (1.4 billion population) currently only has a 2% EV adoption rate. The primary reason that the EV adoption in India is lagging is due to the fact that the price of EV's has been higher than ICE cars. Sticker prices of EV's around the world are going to be cheaper than ICE vehicles in 2023 or 2024 at the latest. The Total Cost of Ownership of EV's is already significantly cheaper than ICE vehicles.
When you take into consideration that India is in the process of building new energy and transportation infrastructure, the choice between cheaper and cleaner EV cars, especially in densely populated areas is going to be a no-brainer.
China and India represent 35% of the world's population and China has already made its decision about EV's. Now that India is able to start importing low cost Chinese EV's, the EV vs ICE converstion is already over.
When we look at the really poor countries, we find that they are not burdened with an infrastructure support system for ICE vehicles. I think of this in the same manner that TESLA is not burdoned with the "100 year equilibrium" problems that have held back the legacy automotive companies. When infrastructure does get put in place in underdeveloped countries, it will be to support EV's.
EV's will be taking over 90% of the transportation industry much faster than virtually everyone realizes. The result of exponential adoption rates of EV's is going to kill legacy ICE vehicle sales THIS decade, not in 2035 or later as some suggest. EV's won't kill the oil industry but it is going to create a significant dent. The adoption of renewable energy will create another dent for heating and powering the grid.
My point is that the writing is on the wall for the oil industry. It won't happen overnight but it is going to happen. The new American IRAct is going to advance the agenda much faster than people think. That is why investment funds are pulling back on oil funding oil companies.
Posters have correctly identified that there is still a lot of oil out there. As demand drops, I expect that the lowest cost producers will fight for market share.
Where does all of this leave Suncor? I think SU will continue to be a cash cow for years to come. Management at SU obviously agrees (buying back its shares and buying minority interest in Fort Hills, etc). As such, SU should remain an attractive and low risk investment for years to come.
Unfortunately, the market doesn't reward sunset industry stories.
I'm happy to collect 3.25% on my TDB8150 daily interest account while the market is so volative and scary. While SU's 4.1% yield is better than 3.25%, there are just too many risk factors to the market (not necessarily to Suncor) that can drag everything down.
I know my opinions lately are not very popular here. That is ok with me. My heart is in the right place.