PEAK woke up for the first time in a very long while.Eric Coffin, HRA - Nov. 2nd 2022 update
Sun Peak Metals (PEAK-V, SUNPF-Qb; up 4 cents on 864k shares at $0.20) PEAK woke up for the first time in a very long while today, putting in its highest volume trading day in over a year. The move is a reaction to the news late in the trading day that the government of Ethiopia and the TPLF have signed a peace accord after extended meetings in Pretoria, South Africa.
This is indeed a very hopeful sign. The communique issued jointly by the two sides is clearly worded as a peace agreement, not just a negotiating stance. Both sides are calling for their people to abide by the agreement and get on with trying to rebuild the country. The government of Eritrea, which is largely Tigrayan but has taken the side of the Ethiopian government, was not part of the negotiations. It has been causing plenty of the trouble in Northern Ethiopia and its president for life is a well-known sh*t disturber. Hopefully he just stays out of things going forward and lets the two sides in Ethiopia can forge a lasting peace. As you know, PEAK’s projects are exclusively in the Tigray areas of Northern Ethiopia and its in-country base is in the Tigrayan city of Shire. Management was very pleased with today’s agreements. They noted that the two sides have been communicating for months, but what they were hearing about was more of a cease fire than a peace accord. This sounds like it could be the real thing. That would allow PEAK to start resuming activities in-country after two years. Sun Peak management has gone out of its way to try and maintain rudimentary communications with their staff in Shire. That includes continuing to pay them at least subsistence wages and get food to them. Neither of those things were easy under wartime conditions. I commend PEAK management for making the effort. It was just the right thing to do. And, while management’s efforts were altruistic and founded in their concern for their people, I think those efforts will pay large dividends going forward. I expect the locals will not forget that PEAK did not give up on them and made every effort to give them succour during a horrible time. There are 40-50 employees in and around Shire ready to get back to work when conditions allow. All that said, don’t expect a miraculous overnight transformation. This was no police action. It was a war, and the devastation is both major and widespread. PEAK is not going to endanger its people by moving too fast. First up, and this won’t happen for a few weeks, the security consultants will go in. Nothing much further will happen in-country until they give the all-clear. Next up will be surface work, probably a couple of months of that. PEAK wants to be sure things have really settled down permanently and will use the time to finish drill targeting in areas it hasn’t been able to get to before. Last but not least, it will start drilling again. Management noted they needed to confer with drillers and gauge how they felt about going back to Ethiopia. The most likely driller is the South Africa based Ethiopian one. They moved a large rig incountry but couldn’t get started before the war began. That rig is being stored in Shire and PEAK thinks this will be the contractor of choice. Bottom line here is that this is a very positive development, and the war may finally be over, but PEAK is going to be cautious. Sun Peak recently negotiated an extension to the Force Majeure clause in its concession agreements that freezes payments and work commitments. The current version extends to next May. This allows PEAK to move forward in a measured way without endangering either its personnel or the status of the concessions.
PEAK cut back spending heavily and still has over $8 million on hand. I do not foresee a near term financing. This agreement is less than 24 hours old. It still requires some bravery, and patience, to be a buyer here. That said, if this is really “peace in our time”, the stock is quite cheap at 20 cents, bear market or no and even if they are not drilling for a few months. I don’t feel there is a lot of urgency given the market backdrop, but I may try to add to my stack over the coming weeks if the price doesn’t move too far in the meantime. www.sunpeakmetals.com