RE:TD 2Thank you, "Transitioning to a 100% return of FFF, from 50% currently, also puts CVE on a very competitive footing, in our view."
This is a differentiator for CVE, as CVE will not become a growth company, but will become a returns to shareholders company, either share buybacks or Base + Special Divividends.
Looking ahead:
1) New NCIB, no SIB, will limit buybacks to max 10%.
2) Alex in Q3 Results CC Q&A said "And I think as people think about even like until we hit $4 billion and after, we hit $4 billion, it really like think about the share price, if that share price is looking like $30, people should expect a lot of variable dividends. And conversely, if that share price is trending below $20. They should expect share buybacks." Historically (OK only last year, CVE has stopped buybacks around CAD25), with share price now at CAD29 that means minimal sharebuy backs, and thus most of Exceess FFF directed to Special Dividends in coming quarters.
Great news for retirees, if you prefer dividends in your pocket vs share price appreciation (I do).