RE:RE:Chart15Stanmore wrote: Hello Keecar.
NPK touched $11.50 on April 21 2022, just over 6 months ago. Trading today at $7.10, here is a partial list of the additional information we have in hand today, just ahead of the release of the Q3 numbers on November 14:
- Plant 1 has been consistently operating above and beyond its rated processing capacity of 50,000 tonnes per month
- Plant 2 construction continued on time and on budget, being commissioned on August 31, 2022
- The initial processing lines in Plant 2 hit the rated capacity of 100,000 tonnes per month, with the construction of the remaining processing lines now complete and ramping up to the 200,000 tonnes per month (2.4 million tonnes per year targeted capacity).
- The 14 km single lane road running between Matutina and Plant 2/Mine site has been upgraded to a two lane, all weather asphalt surfaced road which will allow truck transportation to easily handle the planned 3 million tonnes per year output of the current mine and processing facilities.
- Q1 and Q2 production and sales set new highs, Q3 results are expected to hit a new all time high for a single quarter.
- Average selling prices remain above 2021 levels.
- Brazil R$ has appreciated against the Canadian dollar.
I expect to see the share price continue to work its way back to above $10, if not by Christmas, certainly early in 2023.
Interested to hear other shareholder's input.
Cheers,
S.
Hi Stan, I always appreciate your insights here and on the more active yet "noisy" ceo board. I have no idea where the share price is headed near term but if Nutrien is to be believed then the unexpected MOP glut should be worked off by EOY into Q1 helping to stabilize prices, which would reduce uncertainty.
From a broader perspective I believe the key to Verdes future success as they scale up will be obtaining orders from the large agribusiness farms which dominate Brazilian farmland (roughly 70%). As yet, Verde simply has not had capacity to really penetrate this side of the market beside perhaps some test plots for amenable farmers. From my cursory reading the industrial scale farmer seems to be a far different "animal" than the "family" type farmer which has been Verde's early adoptee bread and butter.
So, now that the company has quintupled their capacity, if they are indeed gaining interest from the industrial scale farms who've trialed kforte/baks, then we should start to see by next year the historically reliable sales average of about 300t per customer start to markedly increase. This will be a key metric going forward to measure if industrial uptake is material or if Verde's offerings will appeal mainly to the "family" style farmers, which constitute around 30% of farmland. Any thoughts?
Cheers!