RE:RE:Buying opportunity soonThanks for posting your comments. I agree with you.
I think there will be a recession and housing along with forestry stocks will continue to get hit.
The question is how long and deep will the recession be?
Trading lumber stocks is not for the faint of heart due to the lumber super-cycle, but the top 5 (WFG, CFP, WY, IFP, LPX) have never had stronger balance sheets.
The lumber market is much more concentrated than the last downturn in 2018, 2015 or 2008 as well.
Although they're commodity producers, there's less incentive to go to war between the big producers otherwise everyone loses out as you suggest with game theory.
B.C. will lose at least 1 million board feet over the next year which will support the lumber price.
There may be some tax loss selling before the end of the year which could give a good opportunity to add to positions.
Lumber might get down to $400 and that would be a good time to buy I think.