RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:I feel sorry for you liked2think DeputyDawg wrote:
"well, its not ranting, its an educated stream of consciousness. i'm saying a min of 3B for this. quite likely higher. but i'm an amateur retail guy, with about 20+ years investing, 25+ years working, educated, and able to research, which if you did, you'd see 3B is an solid average deal in the last 1-2 years for a SALT co. but that's for old school EXPENSIVE mines. with lots of costs and capping out at production that simply cant go higher. why do you think it's crazy to think we'd be AT LEAST worth as much as an average deal w/ our state of the art mine? but not worth more? whatever you're smoking i want nothing to do with!"
Interesting post and you clearly have done research and I agree with some of what you say, but I don't believe you can apply production valuations to a non producing and unpermitted resource. This is certainly 2 and possibly more years from production and requires a capex which I think will be close to or at $300m (just look at steel price increases for a start and almost certainly an upgrade to the dock facilities) although others think lower.
For anyone to buy Atlas now and shell out either circa 12 x future EBITDA or $3b, plus capex with no permitting and a lead time of 2 plus years before an income stream is a big ask.
I agree DeputyDawg. I think using the 12x EBITDA, multiple years of DCFs and any other metric of an operating mine is the only info we will have to upon which to base an estimate and I agree asking a company to pay 100% fair value for those operating mine metrics with a high-potential asset is a stretch.
There is execution risk to developing the mine. Sure, ATLAS has been working to de-risk the asset and that will go a long way in any pricing for a buyout. However, most companies are likely not going to pay a vendor for the heavy lifting & risk associated with getting the mine up & running unless they are forced to for external reasons. There's no set formula for this and that's why when I came up with my estimates, I simply split the value 50/50 so that the buyer/vendor shares the risk. If nothing else it provides a base for discussion and can go up or down depending on circumstances such as multiple bidders, a purchaser's need for the asset, etc.