Not out of the woods just yet!Been following GCM/Aris about 5 yrs now. I haven't seen a financial Qtry report yet for the combined companies. My take is their earnings could be a little disappointing. Last GCM qtr was $0.13/shr on about 75M shares (aver. gold price about $1800). Aris about break even to a small loss on 7500 oz produced. Now, estimate I've seen is $0.13/shr but the float is about 135M shares and the average gold price is down to say $1675. I wouldn't be surprised to see $0.10 or less for 3rd qtr. Now historically PE ratio has 5 to 6. That would indicate a price of $2 to $2.4 per shr.
Right now technical charts show an inverted head and shoulders developing with a potental right shoulder leg down. This might co-inside with Dec Fed rate hike and tax loss selling season. The US dollar is starting to roll over but may get a little support with the next rate increase and hold the gold price down a bit.
I believe the real motivator will be interest expense on the Us debt, $31T, with interest expense going from 0.25% to say 5%. Granted this will take some time to develop but this represents a 20 fold increase on a society that hates new taxes and a government that runs a $1T additional debt annually.
End Result - Us dollar tanks even further. Gold in $US dollars goes to $2500 by Q3 2023 and Aris stock price $10 to $12 or better. What say you all?