RE:Not out of the woods just yet!"Now historically PE ratio has 5 to 6. That would indicate a price of $2 to $2.4 per shr."
that was based on segovia production. when several long life 20+ year tier 1 like projects are added, the market cap increases and PE is allowed to rise based on assets not producing yet. you don't just say all the non-producing assets are worth zero and base PE just on the producing asset. otherwise all the development companies with large deposits that are not producing yet like osisko mining would have a share price of zero instead of a billion dollar market cap.
oldmanmike wrote: Been following GCM/Aris about 5 yrs now. I haven't seen a financial Qtry report yet for the combined companies. My take is their earnings could be a little disappointing. Last GCM qtr was $0.13/shr on about 75M shares (aver. gold price about $1800). Aris about break even to a small loss on 7500 oz produced. Now, estimate I've seen is $0.13/shr but the float is about 135M shares and the average gold price is down to say $1675. I wouldn't be surprised to see $0.10 or less for 3rd qtr. Now historically PE ratio has 5 to 6. That would indicate a price of $2 to $2.4 per shr.
Right now technical charts show an inverted head and shoulders developing with a potental right shoulder leg down. This might co-inside with Dec Fed rate hike and tax loss selling season. The US dollar is starting to roll over but may get a little support with the next rate increase and hold the gold price down a bit.
I believe the real motivator will be interest expense on the Us debt, $31T, with interest expense going from 0.25% to say 5%. Granted this will take some time to develop but this represents a 20 fold increase on a society that hates new taxes and a government that runs a $1T additional debt annually.
End Result - Us dollar tanks even further. Gold in $US dollars goes to $2500 by Q3 2023 and Aris stock price $10 to $12 or better. What say you all?