Expectations for the prints for the dayBMO on The Day Ahead in Canada
07:51 AM EST, 11/15/2022 (MT Newswires) -- Bank of Montreal (BMO) said that the full suite of Canadian resale housing market data was out at 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday and it already knew from the major cities that it won't look great.
All major Canadian cities reported double-digit declines in sales, with the largest concentrated in British Columbia and Ontario; nationally, the bank expected sales to fall 36.5% below year-ago levels. BMO looked for average prices to drop 8.5% y/y, while the quality-adjusted MLS HPI was expected to be down 1% y/y, the first year-over-year decrease since late 2019, driven by a negative print in Toronto.
The bank expected the housing market to weaken further in the coming months and into next year as ongoing policy tightening made its way through the Canadian economy.
Investors will also get data on manufacturing and wholesale sales at 8:30 a.m. ET. Manufacturing sales were expected to slip 0.5% m/m in September following a 2.0% m/m decline in the prior month. Wholesale sales looked to be down 0.2 m/m but after a strong 1.4% gain in August, stated BMO. New motor vehicle sales, as reported by Statistics Canada, were likely down 2.5% y/y in September.
The province of Ontario released its mid-year fiscal update Monday. Ontario was projecting a C$12.9 billion deficit for FY22/23 (1.2% of gross domestic product, or GDP), much smaller than the C$19.9 billion shortfall estimated in the initial budget plan. While that marked a meaningful in-year improvement, it was also a turnback down after the public accounts reported a C$2.1 billion surplus for FY21/22.
The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) traded at $1.328/USD (75.3 US cents).