Starsearcher80 wrote: A change of heart? As far as the company goes and its potential, no change of heart whatsoever. What precipitated the change, or in my case, adjustment to the mix, was a series of considerations that are now present that were not in play before. So first of all, in this light, my perspective will always remain fluid to the forces in play.
So having said that, these are the elements that I now consider:
1) First of all, Bombardier has been on an exceptional run. And in ALL good runs retracements are a normal and health part of the overall upside move. In fact, if there isn't a retracement when i think there should be, it makes me hedgy. That's how bubbles happen. So I now consider it a "new thought" that has entered the playing field, where I would like to see that normal retracement happen. This "new element" would make up about 30% of my thoughts on things that could be impactful on the share price.
2) The FAR bigger component that has presented itself, and to my about 70% of my reason to adjust the mix, is that I think the overall market is now FARRRRRRR ahead of its skiis. Right now we have a situation where "not as bad" is somehow "the new good". Inflation running at 7.7% vs 7.9%?? Ok, technically yes, it's better. But the fact remains its still horrible. Interest rates now rising at possibly 50 points versus 75 points?? Ok again, better, but they are still going up, and up strongly. So lets say "better, but still a mess".
To use an analogy, it would be like getting in a massive car accident and your car is completely totalled. But you then notice one tail light that is still intact. And you are SO excited about this! "Hey everyone!! I still have one good tail light!!! That's awesome!!!' Now, you can be as excited as you want focusing that it is "not as bad". But the fact remains that at some point, you're going to have to pay hommage to the rest of the mess. And in the economy, make no mistake. It is a mess that is still increasing.
Personally, I think the market needs one more exceptional downleg, and I would like to see it be that real capitulation that truly signifies a bottom. And I think the economic factors, and the economic realities will dictate this. Once this happens, THEN I think it will be time to put the real bottom in. But the rally last Thursday? That was thin, on low volume and sooooo overbaked, I consider it alarming and dangerous.
So back to Bombardier, I'm still happy to be holding 1/2 of a very large position. The rest, I pay my respects to the fluid elements as they present themselves and make my best decisions accordingly. I'f I'm right, I win. If I'm wrong...meh. A continued hold of 1/2 of a large position from $20 works for me just fine.
Newbies in the market go for home runs all too often. Me? I used to do that. Now, I'll hit singles all day long, a few doubles, the odd triple, and the rare homer. That is the play for long term survival in the market.
As the fluid elements present themselves, in this case chart issues and macro concerns, I adjust. But as for the company as a whole, I still say it's the best on the TSX right now. No change there at all with regard to that sentiment.
vonSachsenanhal wrote: Hi Star,
I expect a bit of retracement before we move forward again. No telling how much and for how long. But this should be a very strong quarter for Bombardier, so I doubt we'll see anything close to the pullback we saw after last earnings. You told us all that it was much safer and more profitable to stay long rather than time the ins and outs of bbd.b. In fact, you had an argument with Club about it, if I recall. Why the change of heart? Last time you checked in you said you were shorting the S&P. Timing not so great!