RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Cantor initiatiate Overweight target 9$Here is what I think is the plan but, of course, it is just an educated guess.
Remember, Wall Street survives on deals and biotech's always need money so there is a mutual need between them.
Cantor has put only a small amount of sales for cancer in their model - $120 million in 2030. My theory, emphasizing the word theory, is Cantor will be heavily involved in an offering for THTX shares at some point in the not too distant future after THTX announces something good, most likely in cancer since that is where they would need additional money to continue testing TH-1902 if it has a successful phase 1b. So, in the dance that goes on in such situation, Cantor initiates with a high price target bolstered mainly by future NASH revenues in order to start drawing attention to THTX. Once, and crucially if, THTX announces good cancer news, Cantor will pop their price target to $20 or something like that as they now will put very substantive revenues ini their model for cancer. Then, a deal will get done with Cantor being a big player in it, maybe via the ATM.
Cantor may also have been the buyer of the 1.6 million shares that traded in a block as brokers can make money by buying inventory at low prices and then selling it on to clients at higher prices after their report comes out. Again, these are just total speculations on my part but it could be accurate. Maybe they took down the 7.5 million share block too but I doubt it.
The Cantor analyst covers 37 companies and has a Buy rating on 34 of them - she is a deal hunter and probably gets compensated pretty well for it. Most of the companies are she follows are not all that dissimiliar to THTX, small, cash hungry biotechs. Most have seen their prices crater over the last year.
Analyst reports these days are often more performance art. Still, the essential case the Cantor analyst is making is one we agree with which is THTX's potential is underrated. She has a $14 bull case scenario, a $9 base case scenario and a $1.50 bear case scenario. If THTX does announce good cancer data, my guess is the next act in the performance is she moves to a $28 bull case, a $20 base case and a $5 bear case.
qwerty22 wrote: Just curious, does she have large amounts of cash coming in for cancer just heavily discounted atm?
SPCEO1 wrote: She has the following 2030 sales estimates:
Trogarzo - $97 million
Egrifta - $145 million
NASH - $371 million
Cancer - $120 million
As I said in my previous post, the analyst's cancer number will likely come up considerably once/if THTX announces something positive there and a share offering lead by Cantor will come shortly thereafter. So, most of the difference between her $9 price target and the other analysts price targets is NASH and a small amount of cancer.
woodman1 wrote: Where would she get $9 US from? I hope it happens, but why don't other analysts see this?