RE:RE:If they dont cut the divyWhen the current annual yield on a stock is over 9% (excluding one-time special dividends) while other stocks in the sector aren't tanking along with it, the market is expecting a dividend cut.
My hunch is, if the dividend is cut, the share price won't be affected much and perhaps even rise on the news as the cut is already baked into the share price and would be viewed as prudent given AQN's debt level (even for a utility) and 674M shares outstanding (source: TMX Money), each of which is getting what is in my view an overly-generous dividend given the current financial state of the company and its capex needs.
If AQN does not cut the dividend, I think the share price will stagnate or drop even more as it will be an unexpected event and viewed as risky / careless.
In my view, the CEO letter states their goal is to provide shareholders with a "sustainable" dividend, which translated means "expect a dividend cut". Perhaps they are still trying to decide on the size of the cut given it would be suicide to cut too small now only to have to announce a second cut at some point down the road, so they need to get it right.