TSX:MPCT.DB - Post by User
Post by
incomedreamer11on Nov 24, 2022 8:59am
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Post# 35124656
TD down target price
TD down target price Impact: NEUTRAL Q3/22
Recap: Impact's recurring income portfolio saw continued growth in Q3/22, with NOI slightly ahead of our estimate and apartment portfolio occupancy extending its rebound. Construction advanced on the recurring income property development pipeline, which includes 2,826 residential suites (100% interest) in Toronto and Ottawa that would grow Impact's operating portfolio to ~4,400 suites (100% interest) by 2025 and increase recurring income GLA by ~60% to 2.1mmsf (at Impact's share). Impact also continues to make good progress on its ESG and impact investing goals with the recent release, along with all the Dream group of companies, of its 2021 Sustainability Update Report (link). Finally, condo pre-sales are progressing at Forma (current photos in Exhibit 5), with finalization of a dedicated credit facility and construction commencement both anticipated in Q4/22.
Forecast(Exhibit 1): We made several adjustments to our model, the most meaningful of which were: i) incorporating today's elevated market yields into interest expense, and ii) removing the previously-assumed gain on the Virgin Hotel Las Vegas (disposition of which is targeted by 2024). The net result were reductions of 14%/5%/71% to our 2022/2023/2024 EPS estimates. Completion of the first two phases at Brightwater next year should provide a boost to earnings and repatriate some capital.
NAV: Our NAV/unit slipped 6% to $8.50, largely due to a higher cap rate (now 7.25% on consolidated commercial properties).
Distribution Impact's $0.40/unit annualized cash distribution represents $27mm. However, with the DRIP recently reinstated and participation at 30%, Impact's net cash outlay is currently just $19mm. Additionally, the annual asset management fee payable to Dream is being paid in units, representing further savings from a cash perspective. While Impact does not currently earn its full distribution from recurring operations, we see the gap consistently closing based on a steady stream of income property development completions plus periodic condo profits and capital recycling.
TD Investment Conclusion We reiterate our BUY rating and $5.50 target price (which was lowered in October from $6.50 in contemplation of the aforementioned forecast/NAV revisions).