RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Delivery costs
AlwaysLong683 wrote: If the FED does 50, 50, 25, the Federal Funds Rate will be 5.00 - 5.25%. That has recession written all over it - increased risk of mortgage defaults, unbearable loan / credit card debt, personal bankruptcies, etc.
The bond market is already telling us that things are likely going to get bad in 2023. I'd say the odds of a recession sometime in 2023 are quite high.
(notice I kept my promise from my last post and didn't mention the "o" word)
My estimate suggests a recession to start in Q1 2023 or right after the holiday season. There are several reasons for this and they all point to a recession in early 2023.
The conference board leading economic indicators is now down 3.2% from April to October. These indicators lead the economy by about 7 months which suggests a recession to begin by the end of the year or early 2023.
The inverted yield curve is another indicator which has a lead time of about a year and a half and it inverted on March 31,2022. This would peg the start of a recession at around August/September 2023. However, in all previous inversions the Fed funds rate had already exceeded the headline inflation number and currently the Fed is tightening into an already deeply inverted yield curve. This tells me the recession may happen before August/September. It's reasonable to assume the recession will occur between Q1 and Q3 of 2023.
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators