geezer21 wrote: Correction to include the missing export chart and to add the import chart. Not only was GXE up but many other oil producers were up Friday despite the fall in oil prices as the trading day wore on.
Despite current bearish outlook, market participants likely see what is coming and are loading up on oil company shares now while share prices are down. Share price action is a leading indicator- forward looking.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bearish-Sentiment-Is-Building-In-Oil-Markets-Once-Again.html
In December not only is SPR draws scheduled to end but oil price caps are to take effect and seabourne Russian oil to Europe will be embargoed.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-effect-russian-oil-price-cap-ban-93924732
Saudi Arabia and Iraq confirm support of production cuts:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-And-Iraq-Reiterate-Their-Support-For-A-Production-Cut.html
EIA records show global oil supply falling off so far in Q4 and demand has been increaseing creating a short fall. EIA forcast that to continue in Q1 '23 with seasonal spike starting in December and to continue climbing into
2023. OPEC confirms that forcast.
https://knoema.com/infographics/cbhnele/world-crude-oil-supply-and-demand-forecast-2020-2021
While rig count in U.S. has risen, rate of increase in shale oil production has been declining.
"Therefore, the Lower 48 oil production forecast has been significantly downgraded and EIR now expects growth of around 450,000 bpd exit-to-exit in 2022 and 560,000 bpd growth for 2023"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Shale-Boom-Is-Officially-Over.html U.S. crude oil stocks has been falling over the last two months.
"US Crude Oil Stocks is at a current level of 822.18M, down from 827.47M last week and down from 1.039B one year ago. This is a change of -0.64% from last week and -20.88% from one year ago." While shale production has increased at a slower pace to approximately 450 - 550 kbbl/day exports have increased approimately 2.5 million bbl/day and imports fell in first half of 2022 and that deficit in imports has not been made up for since.
In short, there has a significant net trade imbalance increase.
Another incidator of increasing demand is that refinery imputs have been increasing.
Exports increased to take advantage of higher internationa
SPR draws where making up for the domestic short fall due to an increase in net oil trade.