Theralase Technologies Inc. V.TLT

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Theralase (TLT) grants 7,860,000 stock options at $ 0.25

[ScienceFirst]

99942Apophis ...  I think your estimates are conservatives and they're fair.

Only your "50" P/E ratio that I thought was too high.  But after validating it, it's fair and in line with the degree of conservatism your other variables, which I think is the right way to go.

There's also another way of trying to assess the share price we could get and it's going with the usual valuation on biotech companies that are seeing as having a drug that works and that is ecpected to be a candidate to the next SOC (Standard of Care); 2B$US-5B$US.  So 2B$US (early stage of revenues), would give us a (250M shares) would already give us 8$US+/share (10$+CAN). 

Given that we could displace BCG even in early-stage (and not just for BCG-unresponsive), given our low number of treatments and durable response, mixed with the fact that BCG is in shortage, we woudl then hit higher valuation over time.  But as you mentioned, 40y of BCG era could end and the word could spread quite fast if we jv with a big pharma.  And because the market would discover how PDT/PDC is much more efficient than anything else, we could get a prime with the upcoming NSCLC and GBM indication.

Here's what the P/E ratios are for the biotech industry, as per the official numbers compiled by Univ. of NY University @Stern

PE Ratio by Sector (US) - NYU Stern

Date of Analysis: Data used is as of January 2022

Industry Name	Number of firms	Current PE	Trailing PE	Forward PE	Aggregate Mkt Cap/ Net Income (all firms)	Aggregate Mkt Cap/ Trailing Net Income (only money making firms)	Expected growth in EPS - next 5 years	PEG Ratio
Computer Services	83	50.64	38.50	32.46	37.08	26.39	16.15%	1.63
Computers/Peripherals	46	54.17	14.97	29.30	28.65	26.70	13.69%	1.95
Construction Supplies	48	29.10	724.66	20.55	34.62	21.43	29.65%	0.72
Diversified	22	32.54	103.88	35.99	18.31	9.96	8.39%	1.19
Drugs (Biotechnology)	581	178.83	321.36	146.61	NA	18.49	11.17%	1.65
Drugs (Pharmaceutical)	298	77.97	45.69	24.29	69.81	24.79	10.25%	2.42

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99942Apophis (1464)

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RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Theralase (TLT) grants 7,860,000 stock options at $ 0.25

Benedictus wrote 

 

enriquesuave wrote:If you were Roger, what would you prefer. An eventual buyout at say 10$ per share(  a modest $3 Billion buyout), or 30 cents per share and a $2 million salary?  So $2 Million per year or $210 million on a buyout. This is not a trick question. IMHO 

 

 

while $3B sounds great it seems highly unlikely. NMIBC annual peak sales is estimated at $1.1 - 1.7B and since nothing else in their pipeline is advanced,, NMIBC success would be the only feather in the cap, so to speak. $1.3 - 1.5B ($4 - $5 per share) would be a huge win imo but let's not count our chickens just yet...  

Hi Benedictus, I'm not clear on how you derived at the figure of $4 - 5 per share.

I will present my very rough calculations for TLT at 10% of market for their first full year of commercialization, if you want 20% or greater simply multiple by 10 the final estimate. 

As I've stated this is very rough primarily because treatment revenue, cost of sales and other expenses are unknown!  

Please note I've taken 25% off of the estimated total of Bladder Cancer as an estimated 25% are perceived to be MIBC to present the following figures.
Estimated new NMIBC in Canada 10,000, estimated new NMIBC in US 55,000, I currently will ignore estimated NMIBC in Europe, I will also ignore people currently living with NMIBC that are/have received treatment which could migrate eventually to TLT. 

Between Canada & US we have 65,000 cases estimated and 10% would be 6500 X $100,000 ( 2 treatments at $50,000 each ) total = 650,000,000 if the fee is $50k for both then let's use $325M for that 10 percent of market share.
Next is a rough estimate of expenses say 70% of revenue which comes out to $227.5M leaving us with $97.5M 
Again I must estimate a total share figure currently sitting at 205 million shares and guessing at options & warrants being excercised lets use 250 million which divided into the net revenue of $97.5M = $0.39 profit per share.
Next price earnings per share ratio or PE for short, since this will be considered a new exciting growth company we can use a 50 to 100 ratio, lets use 50 X $0.39 = $19.50  and remember thats only for 10% of market, please multiply accordingly for more market share.