RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Powerhouse - Lookout World Here We ComeExperienced wrote: MigraineCall wrote: Experienced, good story. The truth is always hidden and that take on it might be fact. Lots of wordsmiths out there.
In the meantime, the refining and retail side continues to provide half of Suncor's profits, and as others have pointed out, the crack spreads continue to be strong, so the future is still bright.
Looking down the road, as it takes a couple minutes to fill a gas tank vs. 30 minutes or so on a high speed charger to fill up an EV, these stations might grow 10 times as big with massive parking lots like the old style Drive In Movie just to service the same amount of vehicles. Many people forced into EVs will not have access to home charging. People will also not sit in a freezing car for 30 minutes, like at a Drive In, waiting for the hotdog to jump into the bun. That means lots of coffee sales, shopping, bathrooms, etc. to keep folks busy while waiting for their EV to charge up and continue on their way.
The Petro Canada stations might end up continuing to be quite an asset for both types of vehicles, including propane, nat gas, and hydrogen.
For the displaced mechanics, since you can't pour a jerry can of gas into a dead EV, there may be quite a service business in hauling a gasoline powered generator around on a trailer to rescue and charge the stranded EVs that couldn't make it to a charge point.
I
Experienced wrote: newcoin wrote: This is what I wanted to hear - strength, commitment and confidence:
"After careful consideration, the Board has concluded that retaining and optimizing the Company's retail business will generate the highest long-term value for shareholders and therefore, has unanimously decided to retain and continue to optimize the network and expand strategic partnerships for the Petro-Canada retail business that enhance our capabilities and capture increased revenue and cash flow opportunities," said Board Chair Mike Wilson. "Petro-Canada is a unique, differentiated, and strategic asset due to its strong national network and best in market consumer brand and loyalty program."
One of my friends who was a senior bureaucrat in the Federal Government called me after reading the news regarding the SU decision concerning PetroCanada. Back in the day he worked in the Energy Department was a key figure in the privatization of PetroCanada and subsequent events.
He couldn't stop laughing during our conversation as he had drafted over the years countless Government PRs for Cabinet Ministers where the true facts were sugar coated and written to create the wrong inpression. He said a truthful PR would read as follows....
"The company contacted and entered into discussions with a number of potential suitors. After serious exploratory talks with these suitors, none of them were willing to buy PetroCanada for a price that the company was hoping for. Sale of PetroCanada at the price they were willing to pay was less than the value of the company to Suncor at the present time. That combined with the fact that a sale would involve a further writedown of that asset following the writedown for Fort Hills, the Board determined that such an action would be detrimental to its shareholders."
He further told me that the primary reason that suitors were not ready to pay a big price for PetroCanada was simple math. As the number of EVs grows over the next couple of decades and the owners charge their vehicles at home, sales at traditional gas stations like Petrocanada will plummet. Further, EVs don't require oil changes and much reduced need for brake jobs so the bread and butter of the PetroCanada garages will also plummet.
The end result in his opinion is that Suncor has decided to keep an albatross around its neck as opposed to taking its lumps and using the proceeds to grow the company.
You may well be right my friend but frankly I have my doubts.
Right now the specs for the IONIQ5 that I have on order takes 18 minutes with a Level 3 charger to go from 10-80%. This approximately the same amount time it currently takes for me to fill up a tank of gas and wait for my wife to go to the ladies room and pick up a coffee. Over time this speed will improve as well as the range for EVs. On a typical road trip which frankly is a small percentage of my use of a car, I would need at most one refill of the battery for the amount driving I would do in one day. The bulk of my charging (well over 90%) will be done at my home not at a PetroCan station.
In terms of access to chargers, you do make a valid point about people who don't live in private homes. That said, most of friends who live in condo buildings even now have access to level 2 charging stations. Many apartment building owners are installing them as well. I also see in the future that there will be companies (actually some exist already in the US) that will build dedicated charging stations near apartment building complexes ruling out the need to go to a geographically inconvenient gas station.
Further, when SU said it was exploring a sale of PetroCan, people were talking about companies like Couche Tard being interested from the comvenience store angle you mentioned. Given the PR, my guess is that they don't see that math working for them.
Anyway, as I said in an earlier post, I do see the potential for a short run rally in the SP for SU since the oil price is below the magic 85 a barrel number. But over the longer, IMO, there will be better investment opportunities than SU unless, they do what I have been advocating for a long time - get into businesses that are growing in the future and ones which will have a material impact on future earnings.
To me it such a shame that management is not using its outsized FCF to build out the company as opposed to doubling down on oil. If they were to do this, I would be backing up the truck (and so would alot of people on The Street).
I'm curious as to why it takes longer to charge your smart phone/battery for your drill/headphones than your car... Oh thats right, super fast charging (and the heat generated) is bad for the battery. Car makers will actually want the battery to fail just outside of the warranty period, since everyone keeps saying that there is no maintenance on these EV vehicles...
So much for all the people thinking car companies actually give a frack about the enviroment. Only a fool would think so, as their business model has always included money from the repair side....Repairs may be less, and the number of parts stocked by them may be less...but you are gonna take it up the butt dry when a critical battery replacement is due... Give it some more time and everyone that fell for the EV, will fall for the next excuse about how batteries and their components are simply in short supply... I'm already laughing...