RE:RE:RBC: The nov 4 Conclusion (target at 58$ from 49$)I could have miss something or understand these things differently. My numbers are:
- In Q3 they had 1,455 M$ of revenues, generating 210M$ of EBITDA for a 14% EBITDA margin.
- For the 9 first months of 2022, they have 4,258M$ of revenues generating 578 M$ of EBITDA for a ratio of 14%.
- At the last Investor day, Bombardier put its 2025 target at 7,5 B$ of revenues (120 jets) generating 1,500 M$ of EBITDA for an EBITDA ratio of 20%.
- RBC analyst put his 2025 revenues at 8 694 M$ in 2025, generating 1,673 M$ of EBITDA for an EBITDA ratio of 19%.
The RBC analyst forecast 146 jets delivered and 2 B$ of services revenues in 2025 and a leverage at 1,8X.
For my part, given that the backlog is already full for two years, the services installations are upgraded everywhere (London from 8 bays to 22 bays !!!!), the Q3 results show us the positive impacts of services on the results (with a margin over 35%), I think that these projections are in line with others numbers, even conservatives.
Lets see the new objectives Bombardier will give in february.
About the analysts: I don't have the job to ''protect', the analysts jobs. I have accounts at 4 different brokers to have access to these analysis, I appreciate that with 4 ''different'' opinions I could make my mind with confidence.
They are what they are, non insiders, giving opinions, without magic. If I make a bad move, it won't be their fault, mine. I understand that no brokers covers all the canadian business universe (there 1500 inscriptions on the TSX only).
For Spartan, there are already 5 Canadian banks that follow them, It could be ineffective for RBC to add another coverage; their decision.
AC is not covered by Desjardins !!! 15 / 20B$ of revenues with its headquarters at Montreal !!!
They make choice trying to cover many companies in each major economic sector. And it's the same for all brokers.
The funds managers ( the key analysts clients) talks to all the brokers, there is no exclusivity.
At the end, the Canadian business universe is well covered by the brokers as a group.