RE:Fool me 4 times shame on you... this is the 5th...I will need to hear more before drawing any conclusions but I think we all knew any early stage cancer trial has meaningful risk associated with it. I noted that the risk increased when we did not hear any good results by mid-October. While we can certainly blame management for quite a few issues, in this case I am not sure we can. A result like this is hardly uncommon in the world of cancer research. TH certainly had some unusually promising pre-clinical results, an unusually early FDA Fast Track designation, a sizable investment from a very knowledgeable investor (who kept adding to their position), a cancer focused report just this week (hard to believe they could not find a way to put the brakes on that) and the recent re-posting of the oncology regulatory relations job - all encouraging indicators. But cancer is a nasty beast and isn't going down easily. So, while the track record of TH is dubious, I am not yet ready to blame they for making what by all appearances was a fairly solid effort in a very difficult field. And it may yet work. Unfortunately, it looks like TH-1902 is maybe already following too closely the very winding path Trodelvy took to FDA approval!
SABBOBCAT wrote: I hear the optimism from some folks that this is merely a pivot on the learning path, but what I don't think is resonating with me until now is the repeated failures of this organization. They are becoming too many and too loud to ignore.
- Commercialization of Egrifta: This is an old old story some may or may not know
- Re-commercialization of Egrifta: This is the more recent story we have seen slowly play out with lackluster results
- Commercialization of Trogarzo: Never achieved a significant fraction of the projected market share, with delayed launch of IVPush/IM formula, and the abandonment of the european market.
- Phase 2/3 NASH: the "position of strength" appears to be balled up in the corner doing SFA. No material progression in years.
- TH1902: P1A delayed as they didnt want to admit to a lower dose so they scraped into 1B and realized that they now need to reconfigure again. so another 6-8 months of delays on top of the initial 6-8 months.
Absent of a favorable partnership announcement in NASH or oncology, I don't see any near term upside that would prevent another OO. Yet management deemed a 6:30PM press release sufficient to communicate to investors how screwed they are with no planned call for further clarity? How disrespectful and out of touch are these folks?
The only thing I can think of is their hand was forced somehow in communicating this. Was it the Cantor report that eluded to it that made them realize they inadvertently let it slip? or is there some other deal that is pending that requires the disclosure? Time will tell.
SPCEO, I can only imagine the conversations you now have to have with your clients and I would not be surprised if this was the straw (or hay bale) that broke the camel's back, but if you do stay, I think you finally agree that something needs to be done about the culture and direction.
Absense of big news or big change, I may need to finally say enough is enough and move on. It is going to be a tough puill to swallow as I broke every rule on this one and will take a long time to come back from this, but I cant ignore the greener pastures any longer.