Atkinsrealis Group Inc T.ATRL

Alternate Symbol(s): SNCAF

Industrials Conglomerates

Atkinsrealis Group Inc., formerly SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., is a professional services, and project management company. It delivers end-to-end services across the whole life cycle of an asset including consulting, and advisory and environmental services. Its segments include Engineering Services; Nuclear; O&M; Linxon; LSTK Projects, and Capital. The Engineering Services segment includes consultancy, engineering, design and project management services. The Nuclear segment supports clients across the entire nuclear lifecycle with the full spectrum of services from consultancy, EPCM services, field services, technology services, spare parts, reactor support and decommissioning and waste management. The O&M segment consists of providing operations, maintenance, and asset management solutions. The Linxon segment offers engineering, procurement, management, and construction services. The LSTK Projects is comprised of the remaining LSTK construction contracts of the Company.

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Atkinsrealis Group Inc > LRT Ottawa Inquiry report

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Comment by ol_grizon Dec 02, 2022 4:02pm

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Post# 35147539

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:LRT Ottawa Inquiry report

Thanks. This is really interesting. Not having any industry background or intimate knowledge of the project issues (other than the excellent Champlain Bridge summary) I can't comment on your percentage probabilities. I'd like to hear what Gabriel thinks on your numbers.

sncthephoenix wrote: Always a pleasure to read your exceptionally informative posts Gabriel. As you and others have already alluded to, this report - unfortunately - highlights the many, varied and extremely onerous challenges for any/all consortiums who pursue and "win" LSTK projects.
However, for SNC in particular, the issue of past-LSTK "wins" now has more to do with expense recovery and the inherent negotiation/adjudication/lawsuits that inevitably result.
To wit: I've continued with my previous analysis as to the potential recoveries that might exist for SNC which I'll highlight as follows (necessarily high-level, significantly variable and extremely speculative given lack-of-access to specific documention)...but also as a starting point for others to build on if/as they so choose:.

(1) Champlain Bridge: Gross Recovery: $379M x's (presumed) 33% Ownership ='s $125M x's (assumed) 66% Win Probability ='s $82.5M

(2) Eglinton Cross: Gross Recovery: $325M x's 25% Ownership ='s $81M x's 50% Win Probabilty re: "formal notice" issue referred back to Superior Court for rehearing ='s $40.5M

(3) Confederation: Partnership Lawsuit minus City Counter-Lawsuit ($230M - $130M) ='s $100M times (presumed) 40% Partnership Share ='s $40M x's 50% Win Probability ='s $20M

(4) Trillium: Project Value: $1.6B x's 100% Ownership x's (assumed) 5% Recovery ='s $80M

(5) Montreal REM: Value $6.3B x's (assumed) 30% Ownership x's (assumed) 2.5% Recovery (re: "cooperative/constructive relationship") ='s $47.25M

This admittedly "back-of-the-envelope" calc re: the above "expected recoveries" equals approx. $270M which is (non-too-surprisingly or completely coincidentallly ;-) only about 10% less than the $300M debt issue SNC just announced.

So, whaddya all think? Tell me where I'm completely right/wrong....too optimistic/pessimistic...off-my-rocker or right-on-target. Whatever the case, the key point I'm trying to make and quantify here is that whatever # we agree upon it'll be purely incremental to the current share price (whenever in future we may actually receive these recoveries, net legal fees of course ;-)

The Phoenix