RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:LRT Ottawa Inquiry reportIt's really a wild guess at this stage.
Re Champlain: We are partners with Dragados. I advised numerous times the head of construction of Champlain when he was heading the highway 30 construction project (CJV30). Jose Luis (JL) Conesa (de la Presa) is very smart. I helped build a nine-figure claim againsst the engineer and counteract a seven-figure claim agaisnt a supplier. I was not involved on Champlain except I did the design of the rolled compacted concrete slabs that helped cast and transport to 1100 ton footings. JL is a smart and tough negotiator. He is on "our side" here. On the other side: Justice Canada provides legal support to PJCCI (the federal bridge management agency and owner) and Services Canada (the delgated owner during construction). Justice Canada always tries to settle cases earlier (I did many cases for them and many cases against them as infrastructure expert so I know). Very nice, decent and sharp people. In this case, the amount is staggering, so the feds or the consortium rejected the recommendations of the conciliator, and the arbitrage process and are waiting for the trial to settle a few days before as is usually the case, except they may also want to wait for the Court to decide to avoid accusations of siding with SNC (that Trudeau is intervening). In conclusion, 80m is a fair assessment, but we may get more. Courts usually side with the contractor and that is fair if he can justify unforseen events.
Re Eglinton: Maybe slightly more, but then again it's a guess.
re Confederation: I think we can get more because of the sinkhole 150m is not excluded, so we get about 50m. the city is claiming the full amount we requeted from its insurers.
In my book, these claims will handsomely pay for whatever losses we are looking at ahead to complete the LSTK projects and I am really looking at professional services.
The first part of my plan that I have shared is :
1. Sell all concession assets for 2B+ and integrate infra finance expertise within Professional services.
2. Buy back up to 75.5m shares reducing float to 100m shares;
3. Spin-out Professional Services as Atkins on 1:1 basis so we get 1 Atkins share for every SNC share;
4. Merge SNC construction with Aecon (600m msrket cap) or just acquire it for 850m - SNC Aecon, hq'd in Montreal :). remember SNC is over 100 years old.