I AM NOW OUTWell thank you Bombardier. I just sold the final ffew shares this morning, with the vast bulk sold later last week. For those interested, here's my thoughts and reasoning. From a buy at an average of $20, to a sell at an average of $52.00 in a matter of a few months...ya, I'll take that.
1) First of all, do I think Bombardier will be going higher still? ABSOLUTELY. For me though, who's roots are as a trader, there is also an equation of time vs benefit. When I bought back at $20.00 average, I noted at that time that for me to hold anything was extremely rare (and it is), and that there had to be a very unique set of circumstances, which there were at that time. But for myself, even if I hold, I hold for the strong run over the shorter timeframe that most "investors" may hold, which is typically longer. So to the investors, I think you'll absolutely win. The pace of that win though, I expect to slow to a more "normal" upside pace, which is just under my own unique needs.
2) The decision to sell was mostly based on two factors: First, right from the buy at $20.00, I said the stock would be moving up to the $54.00 range, which is exactly what it did. So it reached my price target that also satisfied my own return/time needs. Secondly, I'm now expecting a significant downside to the overall market, as I think the market is now wayyyyyy ahead of itself. To my thinking, there needs to be one more gut-wrenching downside that will take the S&P to at least the 3200 range. Personally, I expect this downside to show in January, but there may be some anticipatory selling in advance of this.
3) Tied in to #2 above, there are all kinds of catalysts for a downside market that the market is just not paying attention to right now. That the market cheers a 50point raise instead of a 75 point raise is torqued. It's stil la raise, it's still bad, and it's still going to bite. Consumers ultimately will roll over, and they are already burning through savings and/or spending money they don't have on their credit card. Credit card debt is now going through the roof. I think this is still boomerang spending coming out of Covid. People are pissed and just want to enjoy. This, unfortunately, will pass. Personally, I think there will be a full recession...not a soft landing, and it will be ugly.
4) Again tied in, there are other cataysts out there that are absolute bombs to the market. Putin is still a massive wildcard. He is now losing this war and will become more isoloated and more erratic. In a world of horrible options, battlefield nukes, EMP weapons, or bombing a nuclear facilty and creating a Cheyrnobl scenario...they are all out there. Then there is the burgeoning China housing crisis. Another one to watch is Italy which is now facing a financial crisis that could easily spill over. I could go on and on here, but these are the biggest worth watching. Outliers? Yes, but each of them true black swans to the market if they happen. Keep an eye to developments here.
So my strategy is that I'll play the downside to the whole market, as I'm now highly confident this will happen. If we can get that capitulation in the market, I'll then buy the heck out of the upside, and if the opportunity comes to rebuy Bombardier, even better. To me, it's akin to that last big market drop, but worse. And in that drop, we also saw Bombardier taken down from about $33 to $24. Warranted? Hell no. But no stock is immune to the overall strong market moves.
So again, thank you Bombardier. And thank you to those here who added to the discussion. There are some very bright people here. This stock will remain on my main screen for a long long time. And what if it continues to move up? Hey, great for the longs. No regrets here. Again, it's a decision based on my own assessment. While I make a habit of being right, being wrong happens all the time too. Well the good thing is no one ever goes broke taking a profit, and there will always be another ride in another stock that presents itself. Or perhaps this one will present that opportunity again too. We'll see.
And finally, to the longs. I admire you. It's just SO not part of my dna to be long, and even this effort to be long for a couple of months (an eternity to me) is so unnerving! I don't know how you do it, but congrats for having the dna makeup that lets you sleep comfortably. I want that in my next life!
Best to all here. Remember this. We are all here to make money as best as we see possible. Longs, traders, shorters...we are all just people doing our best, and we just happen to meet on this stock. Whatever your take on the stock from here, and however you choose to play it, my very best to you all!