RE:I AM NOW OUTHey Star.
I will say this to you.
Speaking strickly for myself here. You sound, and come across as a straight up guy. That's why I connected with your thought process in this stock.
You did the right thing by getting out. To hold long is not in your DNA. I envy that, because after all these years of trading, you know this is a CESSPOOL (your quote) and they (Shorts, MM's, Institutions) can steal your money at every turn. So you took your profits, and took advantage of the opportunity.
I can't do what you do, because I'm good at somehting else other than Trading. So I I'll say this though in response to your post.
1) You're right that the upside from here on, will be slower in dollar value, and much longer in time. But it will be higher over a longer period of time. Yes we could get some consolidations, and some strong runs with higher fluctuations. This stock is going to $120 by the end of 2023 IMHO. I choose to stay long because
I can't trade this stock the way experienced people such as yourself do. And this of course this gives me the time to do all the other things that I do in my life. My real job for one. Sometimes I feel blessed that I have that ability.
2). Your second point about selling at this time shows the real successful Trader in you. You set a time, and price and when the stock reached your points you got out. You are disciplined. Yes the overall market or exchanges, could see some pain coming in early 2023. But this won't affect Bombardier. Because they are on the up cycle, because their spending cycle is over. In fact Q1/23 will see the SP fly to who knows where. This is just MHO of course, but the past year was a good example of world strife in the Global Economy, and yet the BOMBER is still adding value. This to me says that Bombardier is gaining strength as the market is tumbling. Because it's Fundementals are strong, and they're growing in a painful financial climate.
3) Yes you're right the everyday consumer is streched financially, and there could be a Recession coming. But that will pose opportunities in RE and some over-inflated stocks. No devalue the Bomber SP. Because the Bomber is still underpriced compared to it's coming Financials, and strong upside. Simply. Bombardier is selling to the rich and they don't give a flying F about spending $75M on a plane, nor do the BJ Charters companies, because they cater to the wealthy customers as well. So growth, growth, growth. Because the Rich don't care about streaching their LOC's. They have the money to pay for those LOC's off and need to travel for their Business's and their wealth protection. Covid won't stop them in the future as it did the past couple of years.
4) The Macro in this paragraph of yours is simple. Puting is actually helping the Bomber. The Euro, and the World countries, are giving the Bomber Military contracts for surveillance planes etc. He would never use NUKES so close to Russia. China's rich citizens are flocking to Canada because of Covid. Btw, we can't take anymore of them here. So Trudeau beware. Italy was never financially healthy, nor were the rest of the PIGS of the European Union. By Germany did the QE thing, and printed it's way out that financial crisis
But all of the above macro developments are a plus for the Bomber, because the wealthy control this Earth. And the global events that are developing, are a tail wind to the Rich and therefore they'll NEED the Bomber BJ's to travel the world in Mach Speed.
In conclusion.
No need for you to justify your profit taking to me at least. I respect your professionalism as a trader, and wish you the best. Don't forget us once a while and post here with your opinions as time goes.
I'm here waiting to read your posts about your take
on TRADING, in this CESSPOOL of a market.
Cheers
859
Starsearcher80 wrote: Well thank you Bombardier. I just sold the final ffew shares this morning, with the vast bulk sold later last week. For those interested, here's my thoughts and reasoning. From a buy at an average of $20, to a sell at an average of $52.00 in a matter of a few months...ya, I'll take that.
1) First of all, do I think Bombardier will be going higher still? ABSOLUTELY. For me though, who's roots are as a trader, there is also an equation of time vs benefit. When I bought back at $20.00 average, I noted at that time that for me to hold anything was extremely rare (and it is), and that there had to be a very unique set of circumstances, which there were at that time. But for myself, even if I hold, I hold for the strong run over the shorter timeframe that most "investors" may hold, which is typically longer. So to the investors, I think you'll absolutely win. The pace of that win though, I expect to slow to a more "normal" upside pace, which is just under my own unique needs.
2) The decision to sell was mostly based on two factors: First, right from the buy at $20.00, I said the stock would be moving up to the $54.00 range, which is exactly what it did. So it reached my price target that also satisfied my own return/time needs. Secondly, I'm now expecting a significant downside to the overall market, as I think the market is now wayyyyyy ahead of itself. To my thinking, there needs to be one more gut-wrenching downside that will take the S&P to at least the 3200 range. Personally, I expect this downside to show in January, but there may be some anticipatory selling in advance of this.
3) Tied in to #2 above, there are all kinds of catalysts for a downside market that the market is just not paying attention to right now. That the market cheers a 50point raise instead of a 75 point raise is torqued. It's stil la raise, it's still bad, and it's still going to bite. Consumers ultimately will roll over, and they are already burning through savings and/or spending money they don't have on their credit card. Credit card debt is now going through the roof. I think this is still boomerang spending coming out of Covid. People are pissed and just want to enjoy. This, unfortunately, will pass. Personally, I think there will be a full recession...not a soft landing, and it will be ugly.
4) Again tied in, there are other cataysts out there that are absolute bombs to the market. Putin is still a massive wildcard. He is now losing this war and will become more isoloated and more erratic. In a world of horrible options, battlefield nukes, EMP weapons, or bombing a nuclear facilty and creating a Cheyrnobl scenario...they are all out there. Then there is the burgeoning China housing crisis. Another one to watch is Italy which is now facing a financial crisis that could easily spill over. I could go on and on here, but these are the biggest worth watching. Outliers? Yes, but each of them true black swans to the market if they happen. Keep an eye to developments here.
So my strategy is that I'll play the downside to the whole market, as I'm now highly confident this will happen. If we can get that capitulation in the market, I'll then buy the heck out of the upside, and if the opportunity comes to rebuy Bombardier, even better. To me, it's akin to that last big market drop, but worse. And in that drop, we also saw Bombardier taken down from about $33 to $24. Warranted? Hell no. But no stock is immune to the overall strong market moves.
So again, thank you Bombardier. And thank you to those here who added to the discussion. There are some very bright people here. This stock will remain on my main screen for a long long time. And what if it continues to move up? Hey, great for the longs. No regrets here. Again, it's a decision based on my own assessment. While I make a habit of being right, being wrong happens all the time too. Well the good thing is no one ever goes broke taking a profit, and there will always be another ride in another stock that presents itself. Or perhaps this one will present that opportunity again too. We'll see.
And finally, to the longs. I admire you. It's just SO not part of my dna to be long, and even this effort to be long for a couple of months (an eternity to me) is so unnerving! I don't know how you do it, but congrats for having the dna makeup that lets you sleep comfortably. I want that in my next life!
Best to all here. Remember this. We are all here to make money as best as we see possible. Longs, traders, shorters...we are all just people doing our best, and we just happen to meet on this stock. Whatever your take on the stock from here, and however you choose to play it, my very best to you all!