RE:RE:WierdI can't wait for another few years to see something meaninful take place. I have ownership in small businesses that will completely pay back an increase in my investment every 3-4 years. I took the additional risk here for the big win, but this new series of events is going to have to make me rethink what I have left to leverage. I'm still trying to process the signals from the events leading up to the announcement, and it just doesn't make sense to me. Everything was looking more and more bullish and misunderstood by the market. Why would the board Chair convert her options early if she didn't think something big was coming and after that last low took place? Why did Arena buy 2,500 shares in the open market at what today is now a 34% premium. This had to have been a complete surprise to them. But, I doubt they were making those decisions on oncology if this was a surprise, because they likely weren't seeing the progress they wanted to see. That cantor report was telling with the emphasis on NASH. One has to still wonder if there's a second round of positive news coming before year-end. One also has to wonder if this news event compromises those discussions or gives advantage to the partner. Maybe a NASH deal is closer than we think?
qwerty22 wrote: I think this is one of many different strands that don't add up here. I'm putting that down to the fog of war rather than anything conspiratorial. I've seen PRs appear on their social media, this is just their usual MO. Right?
I think I'm starting to settle on the idea that we are still mostly in the guesswork phase of things here. It helps to explain the complete lack of clarity. They don't have clear cut answers, they could promote some more positive scenarios based on a reading of a few data points but in truth they would have to put forward some negative ones as well or be very clear that what they were saying was speculative. So best say nothing.
Another guess from me would also be that they've set out the short term path forward, that is likely to change or get more detailed after they interact with the fda. I can see them waiting until they've been through that process, come to a clear path forward then present the data in the light of that decision. Wanting to stay in control of the message they probably don't want to dump a whole lot of info now then have to do clean up of the stuff that doesn't fit so well with their plans.
I think Wino is right. They've failed to de-risk. The question is did the risk go up or stay the same. It's probably up in all scenarios. It might be less up if they can say we saw this small thing and if we tweak things this way then we might see that small thing turn into a bigger thing. They've just not laid out what that small thing might be (or if it even exists).
We certainly should brace ourselves for the program to grind to a halt or return to the R&D/preclinical phase and the plan to be mostly about cost cutting for the next few years.
SABBOBCAT wrote: So you'd think woth disappointing news you'd do the late evening PR late on the week to do it as quietly as possible. While TH did the late night thing, they didn't do it quietly and blasted it across every social media account on English and French. Something seems off about the whole situation and strategy here.