Excelsior on Precious Metals Q3/Q4 Next YearThis repost was further down the same thread i just quoted.
Excelsior: It would be surprising if Silver doesn’t make a run at that $30 resistance level in 2023 and then blast through it. After that, there isn’t much resistance between $30 and $49, so things could really escalate quickly
Think about the moves we’ll see in the Silver miners in that kind of environment.
Since the Fed is wrapping up their rate hiking cycle in the first half of next year (likely in Q1), and the US Dollar appears to have put in a top this year and is now entering a period of a longer-term decline (with some counter-trend rallies of course), as we move into a period of economic malaise next year with stickier than desired inflation, then it seems like an ideal environment for the PMs to have a good run in 2023 all things considered.
Now, obviously if there is a big “sell everything” market rout that could derail things for the PM sector too; or if the recession got particularly ugly, it could impact commodities, thus Silver’s industrial component side. However, it’s more likely that investment demand in the monetary metals side strength would outweigh the industrial component side weakness and drive Silver higher alongside Gold. The second half of 2023 should be pretty interesting indeed.
End of Excerpt. See my own comments below.
I'm not sure i agree entirely with his thesis largely because i expect inflation to combine with low economic growth to create the dread deflation which endures for years.
Excelsior says the feds' interest rate hiking 'cycle' should end and lead to his second half 23 scenario. This could absolutely happen. I just see the same end to fed interest rate hikes in a much darker light.
Basically, compelled by the 30+ trillion U.S. debt service being unpayable if interest rates rise beyond 5% the fed HAS to stop hiking. This removes interest hikes as the much talked about 'only arrow in its' quiver' available to fight inflation. Reserve banks worldwide are all in pretty much the same debt constrained boat.
I expect inflation to be long-term which Excelsior doesn't rule out.
I'm old enough to remember the 70s when the fed raised interest rates to 20% before inflation was 'tamed'. I just can't see 5% doing the job.
Sorry for the doom and gloom. Just my opinion and frankly you should probably trust Excelsior over me...lol. He doesn't say it but in my opinion he's describing a 'muddle through' scenario and a possible precious metal response highly beneficial to SCZ share holders.
Regardless, he is always worth reading. Enjoy.