Annoying but...Annoying but healthy, forcing to reevaluate my strategy again.
The fear of a global meltdown well expressed by Star80 is contrary of the mainstream of this board. I share some of his fears like a Financial crisis driven by public endebtness in some countries, but i don't see such great threats from others factors:
The Putin factor: after 9 months of war we know that Russia is isolated from more than half of the economic world and it is now linked with the Chinese interests. Given the strongs economic links of China with the rest of the world (West), Russia will not allowed to put the economy in chaos. Don't forget that Russia has only a 1,7 T$ GNP (EU is 20 T$, USA is 23 T$ and China 15 T$). Russia has remnants of a military force but it is getting weaker and weaker following its economic decline (that started 50 years ago).
Inflation: It would be contraproductive to hike rate at infinitum; the FED don't want to restrain cash on hands at a level where governments will are forced to inject money into the economy. The rate hikes of 2022 already slowed the household expenses; FED only has finition works to do. There is absolutely no sign of new inflation surge.
The US Debt ceiling debate: Yes the history is full of confrontations in Congress about the debt ceiling. But the dec 2013 confrontation driven by GOP with their congress majority lasting for weeks cost them a political price. They lost this two months confrontation; since, the debt ceiling debate is like wet firecrackers, softer. The NO side is view as inflicting useless wounds to US economy.
The market level; too high, too fast ?: Maybe, but that brings only adjustments, not a fall: If I believe that Putin, Inflation and debt ceiling debate are not decisive factors, I do not think that the market adjustments will drive it 20% down.
On the other side, BBD show strenght, often contrary of the market; is it immute ?
But, that being said personal thinking is only about probabilities not certainties. So, it could be the time to slow down my enthousiasm or soften a little bit my risk taking. Wisdon is always the best choice. That means only well selected options and more shares instead. The long run story of Bombardier is untouched, only the risk of some bumbs.