RE:RE:RE:CellPress: Emerging Field of OV Based Cancer ImmunotherapyDavepark5 wrote: Ok Noteable seems to have a few screws loose. Maybe canadafan? westcoast? kws? Any thoughts on why we are down?
We are down because ONC/ONCY shares are heavily manipulated. I have stated this before many times. This has been going on for years. At least 18 years, and more so more volitile in the past 2 years. When ever there is any increase in volume, like going into up coming news, the volume increases on speculation and the SP climbs as it is harder to manipulate a stock going into coming NRs, plus manipulators want the SP to climb going in to NRs so they leave it alone, or might even manipulate it upwards for bigger short term small gains.
After the NR, day traders and others do the typical 'Sell on NRs' and the price drops back with every stock, volume drops off and it is once again easy to pick off small lot bids to manipulate the SP back down. We have seen this again and again with people selling/buying 7 shares, 50 shares, etc. Who the heck sells/buys 7 shares, unless they are trying to manipulate the stock. Stating "ONC/ONCY will never proceed with mBC Phase III", and other similar negative comments either comes from somebody that has done absolutely ZERO research and possibly emotionally flying by the seat of their pants betting money they do not have (margined) and in an irrational panic, or they have an alterior motive to create confusion and frustration amoung other Shareholders in order to try and create a SELL OFF panic, cause the ONC/ONCY is 'supposedly' going nowhere.
Which could not be more incorrect!
Noteable is absolutely correct with the 'Barking Dogs' analogy.
The negative banter got so back on Yahoo I stopped going there to read it. I had blocked so many rediculously negative people on Yahoo that I could no longer even follow a conversations, and almost every conversation was rediculously negative and did not follows NR information or fighting, and was a waste of my time to read, and is time I will never get back.
This Forum seems to be headed that way as well and I have been getting tired of the negative false banter and have now IGNORED about 10 people here as well. At some point I may not be back here either. Its starting to be come a waste of my time reading 15 false or fighting posts just to read 1 or 2 good posts that contain valuable or intreqing comments.
AGAIN... The negative banter that goes on in this Forum is totally unwarranted. Every NR ONC/ONCY has issued since 2016 has been nothing but positive news, some stellar news, and ALWAYS building on previous data, all leading to where we are now, on the verge of a Phase III mBC registration trial announcement and a Phase II/III Panc registration trail announcement. Both of these cohorts now having FDA FAST TRACK DESIGNATION.
This is not PUMPING the stock, this is just re-stating previous NR FACTS that seem to get lost and/or forgotten by many, or ignored by those that are trying to create confusion.
If you are an ONC/ONCY shareholder and truly want to be in the know, go back and read ALL the NRs since about 2015. ONC/ONCY was awarded mBC FAST TRACK DESIGNATION in around 2016, so I recommend you start reading about a year prior to that date. I have been here for 24 years and have read ever singe NR ever released since 1998.
Many negative comments made on here in the past while are simply are not FACTUAL. Go read the previous NRs.
I have always stated IMHO that ONC/ONCY is very tightly held by Shareholds that are here for the long. The longs have all bought the shares they want, can afford and sometimes add a bit more. But IMHO the greater volume of ONC/ONCY shares are held long. This causes the stock to trade flat. The longs hang on through the ups and downs and that does nothing to stabize the stock, and longs hang on because many of longs are in the RED (as I am) and just watching and patiently waiting FOREVER it seems at times. Leaving low volume that is easily picked off and manipulated.
When manipulating a stock they play on news. No new is good news when manipulating a stock, even a pause/delay like today is good news when manipulating a stock as volume drops off and again they can pick off drag the price down. Don't believe me ? Go look at the traded lots sizes when the volume is dropping. Its mostly very small trade quantities pulling the SP down.
IMHO the reason the stock sits so flat (no huge gains) is mainly due to the low end Target Prices that are around $3. New investors see Target prices from $3 to $15. The $3 Target was the most recent added. The $8, $10, $15 target prices have been there for a couple years now, renewed from time to time, with a 1-2 year target date. And relatively speaking we really are not that far off the lower $3 target at this time.
Most of the analyst reports state or only recognize ONC/ONCY as a Phase II Biotech company with only 'the potential' to become a Phase III Registration trail company. With all kinds of disclaimers that their Target Prices will change by a factor of mulitples should ONC/ONCY become a Phase III biotech company.
But that is not getting recognized.
But as an outside investor, who has not read all the NRs since 2015 do not have the history and invest purely on speculation, and as ONC/ONCY sits just below $3 target price range that is not much on an upside from where we sit now. Anything above $3 would seem questionable on a quick look. But when new investors due their dudiligence and become 'in the know' they are buying long and holding, which increases volume and the share price goes up as we saw after the Panc NR, only to have those investors buy up the holdings they want, stop buying, volume drops off and the manipulators pick it off again on low volume trades and the SP drops again.
ONC/ONCY SP is all about volume.
It is really pretty sad to watch, cause I have been here FOREVER and we are so close, it would be so nice to see some real increases... but...
As for being low today, well UNITL THERE IS NEWS there is NO NEWS, now new hype, no new buyers, low volume and another opportuning to pick off the low bids and drop the share price, with the hope of picking up more shares at a lower price and selling them into a rising SP after today's NR.
I have my doubts people are actually shorting the stock at this time, as the RISK there could cost them their house to cover. But I could be wrong. The last reported shorting volume is pretty low, and I would imagine most of those shorts are in the $4-$6 range.
IMHO they are simply manipulating SP by low volume bid lots based on the small size of each dropping trade price.
NR today wth the information embargo, will not come until after they actually discuss this news at the presentation later today. My guess is the Data to be discussed will be either discussed after the market closes, or they will halt the stock for the end of the day, to have the presentation. With the NR coming out after the presentation. Un-Halt for the morning.
I would prefet to see ONC/ONCY HALT the stock for a few hours at the end of the day, as that always gets investors attention as well. But we will have to wait to see...
I find this timing today intreguing... as I do not EVER recall ONC/ONCY doing this. If I recall correctly, every previous presentation has always had the NR released the morning of, or the evening before the presentaion and the Data was then discussed at the presentation. I could be wrong, but this seems different to me and I find it intreguing, wondering just exactly what is going to be released that they did not want to send it out in morning NR.
It has to be something completely new, as they would not need the embargo otherwsie.
I am with Westcoast on this one, in the fact that I also do not have high expectation about the NR today creating any huge jump in SP. In fact, I think we will see the same thing as we saw after the '3x current standard of care' panc results. Huge findings. Those that did there DD bought in and bought the shares they wanted and are now holding with stronger hands, as someone here called it. I like that analogy.... Then the volume fell off and was picked off again dropping the SP. My gut tells me we are going to see the same thing over the next few days no matter waht the news is.
Why? Because, as much as I disagree, it seems the market is only waiting on an actual Phase III mBC approval or a Phase II/III Panc approval before it is going to see an consistant volume... and with volume comes increased SP.
I hope I am wrong and the DATA today sets a new track, but my gut disagrees.
However... I don't care what the market thinks. I am in for the long.
BUT.. IMHO the Panc FAST TRACK DESIGNATION is the total wild card here. I was not expecting to see that until Q1 2023, but has already happened. So what else is ALREADY in the process. FTD means all kinds of short cuts. ONC/ONCY and ROCHE can provide a treatment '3x better that the current standard of care' and the FDA is going to want that in the pipes as soon as possible. So, the way I see it, the timing on Phase II/III APPROVAL is... FAST TRACKED as well, and I am hoping to hear a Panc II/III APPROVAL within the next 2 months.
Why? If the Type-C meeting, etc Phase III approval process is typically a 3-4 month time period, it wouldn't be much of FAST TRACK process if they only knocked a couple weeks off the process. So, IMHO I am looking for that process be cut in half at the minimum. And the fact that the FDA has been part of the pela process since 2016 with real time data, I am sure ONC/ONCY, ROCHE and the FDA already knows what that trial should look like. So I am looking for Panc Phase II/III aproval within the next 2 months.
I doubt there will be any notice on this. I think it will just happen one day within the next 2 months, and ONC/ONCY and ROCHE will be Phase II/III Panc partners, with no real warning, other than the NRs and expectations that we currently have today.
Sorry for the length of this but... in closing
My advice to any new and old sharehiolders is STOP WATCHING THE SP !
It will drive you nuts, I did that for 24 years and one day just decided to just FOCUS on the end point.
Daily trading SP is not going to get us to where we are going anyways.
It just won't happen simply due to
- low SP trading history,
- on going low volume,
- on going manipulation due to low volume,
- and the low $3 Target Prices mixed with higher 1-2 year longer term target prices.
In the interim, volume is the only thing that is going to both stop the manipulatuion and cause the SP to rise long term, and IMHO based on watching the NR events over the past few months CONSISTENT volume will only come with a Phase III mBC or Phase II/III Panc approval. Pretty sad really considering ONC/ONCY is on the cusp of 2 registration trials.
Keep the information on here factural, noit false, and not emotional. Or, you will also be IGNORED as well.
SET YOUR END POINT as APPROVAL of the Panc Phase II/III registration trial, buy and hold for that.
As that should IMHO come at any time between now and the next 2 months.
We do not know how far along ONC/ONCY and ROCHE is with the FDA PHASE II/III Panc approval discussions.
We do not know how much more time the FDA actually requires to evaulate the Panc results as the FDA has been looking at this sutff for years already. We were surprised by the FDA FTD timing.
FTD and the FDA has become a total wild card here.
IMHO a Panc Phase II/III Approval is the next big NR timing wise as Panc is now WAY ahead of mBC.
STOP YOUR WHINING and COMPLAINING about the daily SP.
THAT IS NOT OUR GOAL HERE!
If you are here for short term gains it would seem you are in the wrong stock and wrong Forum, get out and go buy oil.
The GOAL here is the bigger end point payout, no matter how big it is $$$$
The first GOAL here is a Phase II/III Panc APPROVAL, IMHO within the next 2 months.
The next GOAL here is a Phase III mBC APPROVAL, and we have been told that will not happen until Q2 2023, after Pfizer has completed their 90 day exclusivity period that I think ends somewhere between mid Feb, 2023 to mid March 2023. So investors already have that timing information...
The BIGGER GOAL here is a BUYOUT and timing on that... all I can say is that everyday it is closer.
IMHO any day within the next 3 months ???
Many seem to be stating that BP will not buy a company that is not Phase III company. OK.
I do not know the answer to that, it could be true.
I favour ROCHE for a Buyout. IMHO ONC/ONCY and ROCHE will be approved sooner than later for a Phase II/III Panc Trail and within the next 2 months. If ROCHE will not buy until they have Phase III approval, so be it. But IMHO the FTD could also change the buying mentality of ROCHE considering they are seeing '3x the standard of care' and want to get on with things. Its not like ROCHE is an outsider buying a drug compny they know little about, ROCHE is in tight with ONC/ONCY and the FDA on ALL the real time DATA. ROCHE knows exactly what they have and where it is going... and FDA interim respones.
IMHO that changes things...
I do think it is possible to have a Phase II/III panc approval before end of Q4 2022
I do think its possible to have a ROCHE buyout prior to end of Q4 2022, but it might be Q1, 2023.
I full expect ROCHE to step up before Pfizer has completed their 90 day exclusivity period,and that will be driven by Panc. timing.
FOCUS on the END POINT, not the daily SP! Stop driving yoursefl nuts!
BUY and HOLD for those soon to happen END POINTS.
BUY and HOLD at this point in time, with big expectations!
ONC/ONCY will be worth XXX times what is is worth today.
Cheers!