RE:Aris Short Interest UpdateI believe the fed is counter productive with rate hikes now. They are inflationary in themselves. They will of course go with atleast 50 pts and stress markets, increase unemployment, stress housing markets, lower tax revenues for governments (state and fed), strengthen the dollar temporariy, and increase their trade imbalance.
Inflation will stay around 4%. The last thing the US needs is deflation. With countries around the world buying up gold and de-dollarizing, it won't be long before Powell will be in a situation he can't afford.... a falling dollar and high interest payments on an ever growing debt with a persistant deficit government.
Debt has always been the problem. Look at Pakistan, 28% inflation and 6.25% interest rates, Turkey 80% inflation and 13% interest rates, Russia 14% inflation and a war. (Spain, Italy, Greece etc.)
Putin has offered up oil at the price cap $60/barrel plus gold. Winter is just starting and I bet Germany will not chance civil unrest for lack of oil. US would like Russian oil at the cap price...a bargain.... but expect the Saudis to drastically cut production to maintain prices around $80. The rest of the world suffers for the US....not likely. It will be everyone for themselves.
Stay tuned January looks interesting!!!!!