RE:Some toughtsThat's what I've been saying on FCF for 2023 on, all along Temp.
They'll have close to $1B in 2023 to do as they wish with. Of course they'll throw it all on the Debt.
So we'll have close $1.5B (Including the restricted cash) to reduce LTD with, in the next full year. The reasoning for that is I think, that we're going to have a great Q4/22 as well. If the B to B stays in the range 1:3 for 2023, we're going to laugh all the way to the bank..
I see LTD getting destroyed. They'll bring LTD down in 2023 to $4.5B-$4.7B range.
Net LTD will go to $3.2B - $3.5B range. That will give us a savings of $100M annually on the Interest in just 2023 alone. That's the kind of numbers I see for FCF, going into 2024 for the company. LTD Interest of $350B annually for 2023 on. Remember that
2023 will be a huge LTD Reduction year, because of the ristricted cash kicking in, too. So I see the SP taking the biggest upward swing in 2023. Mind you 2024 we'll have another close to $1B of FCF to Reduce LTD with as well. But that's dependent on how quickly they can get Pearson going as well. If they can get Pearson going in Q4/23 as opposed to Q1/2024, along with the full capacity of the Service side??? Then we're going to blow the doors off the LTD and the Competition. If we can increase our market share of the BJ market by 5% with Pearson operational for 2024??? Then we're REALLY in the money. Don't forget that we still have another $1.35B in cash in Reserves, which they can use part of it if they increase their LOC.
Overall we're cooking with gas right now. But soon we'll start cooking with Jet Fuel.
lb1temporary wrote: - Yesterday, BBD859 gave a forecast ; ''This will push up EBITDA up to $450M - $470M range.''
I can add that in the FCF side, if we substract 140 M$ for the interests, 80 M$ for the Capex and add at least 200 M$ for the work-in-progress inventories decrease ( at 46 deliveries we will be 10 over the 35 average deliveries per quarter in 2023), we will have FCF in the 400-440 M$ range. That will means close to 1 B$ for the full year. A real huge achievement.
- On a daily basis, the behavior of the stock generally went in the same direction as the big movements of the market. Since, the Q3 results it is unpredictable; It's as if the share moves according to its own momentum only.
- In the last 10 trading days, we had 3 huge performing days by Bombardier. Monday, nov 28 (+3$), Thursday dec 1 (+3,89$) and last friday (+1,46nbsp; as the market was down 1%). This stock has a momentum rarely seen before.
That being said, it's difficult to distinguish realistic forecasts from irrational exuberance. We are only at 2,11$ pre-split.