Note from another forumPetroTal and Petroperu have finalized an agreement for the repayment of US$64 mm in true up revenue owed to PetroTal by Petroperu. On 1 December, PetroTal has received US$10.9 mm as part of a schedule of payments, which is expected to be completed by August 2023.
• Indigenous communities have taken control of the pathway of the Amazon river, preventing export to Brazil. PetroTal has reduced production to between 4,500 bbl/d and 5,000 bbl/d since 30 November to manage storage levels and will need to further reduce production levels should the blockade persist as the Northern Peruvian Pipeline remains unavailable due to ongoing repairs.
For the time being and given previous similar situations, we are assuming that the Brazil export route will be restored by the end of the month.
• PetroTal continues to be a value name also offering cashflow growth and reserves upside.
Valuation
While the latest blockade is frustrating, we view the agreement with Petroperu to recover the US$64 mm owed to PetroTal as very good news. It represents ~15% of the company’s current market cap. ..
....We have left our production forecast for 2023 onwards unchanged.
We re-iterate our target price of £1.30 per share.''