RE:RE:RE:Great opportunity!It will be important for CEO to show sales did hit their target with around 15% growth last year, and to put an achievable target out for next year and exceed it - start on the low side. That will help build confidence around the drug sales. Using that opportunity to review their path to breakeven would help even more if they have it analyzed by then. He said that was his plan and there was buy-in from his major shareholders so one can expect that once the analysis is done and approved by Board.
Just those steps would reassure shareholders for next year. Then they can update around trials, projects, science, partners and where they are with the important elements. To the extent they can be clearer on what they're larger team believes around the activity isues with oncology trial and why, that would also help a lot. They have to do it, it's just a question of when they get that figured out. These are sentimental helps to the market, but the cost cutting and revenue guidance are financial supports now. A $20-30-40mil turnaround in net cash flow over 2 years is worth something and they need to show that.
By the way, someone mentioned the reporting in the fiscal year of the writedown for the European trog rights and such. That was already announced back when they did it and I believe the amortized rights for that were around $10mil and they wrote it down, which is why the loss was large but it was non-cash. If you look at last quarters cash flow statement, to operate the business only costs them $1.1mil at the operating level (not including interest payments) --and that's after spending $8.4 in RD and $4.2 in general admin exp during the quarter too. So if you just cut $1.1mil for that quarter, you are at operating breakeven. They will cut more than that so they get to operating profitability, get more of the expected $8-ish mil in new sales to bottom line, and pay interest and hopefully start getting close to profitability.
Point being, it's not a massive number - $2mil a quarter gets them to opeating breakeven without considering sales growth, which they will be budgeting. Cutting 5mil from ops (say, $3.5 out of the $8.5mil in RD and $1.5mil from Admin) each quarter gets't them $4mil in operating profit each quarter (still have finance to pay). That would be a very healthy result going forward and it doesn't factor in any new cash flow from new sales, I'm just looking at last quarters cash flow statement. So it's emminently doable and he's told his shareholders that's what he's going to do. Those details will be releaseed because that's exactly what the analysts always ask them. Some of those analysts will actually be giddy to see operational profitability much sooner than they expected.
SABBOBCAT wrote: I agree it isnt without its caveats and concerns. Would I add at higher prices? Definitiely not, I already have enough exposure. However, at these levels it is like salvage value. A few thoughts on the opportunities and partnerships.
- NASH: I feel that the Pandemic really did drag any progress on this. There was risk on top of risk that hampered any partnership. Then there was they delays for the F8 formulation and the human factors study. Total failures in my eyes, but they are expected to resulve through the coming year and perhaps clear the way for a partnership? Again this is a flyer at this point, but at these levels this is not my driver for buying.
- Trogarzo: The IV push should somewhat help sales? Really this is just helping the cashflow case for the company, but there isnt much beyond that here.
- TH1902: The pause absolutely sucks, no question there, but there is still value to the program. Maybe not the slam dunk people had envisioned a few months ago, but there is a path forward. However due to the lack of cash, TH will need to partner in NASH or Oncology to move things forward. This unfortunately removes some upside from current shareholders, but will provide legitamacy and drive short term value.
The way I see it, TH should focus on the shareholder value and speed to market for their programs. If that means partnering or getting boughtout, then lets make the nessesary changes and get it done. With the Marathon Debt, the the clock has started and they cant do the same song and dance they had been for the past 20 years.
Insiders can't buy until earnings are released, so the only tell we will have before then is next week's option expiry. If they don't see value at .38 then there needs to be a shake up at all levels.