RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:LRT Ottawa Inquiry report We can hope for a resolution of one of those claims in the near future.
This company is too diversified and the integration ismcounter-productive.
1. The concession assets should be sold to buy back shares at ridiculously low prices.. less than what was paid to acquire Atkins five years ago...
2, Atkins should be spun-out as a stand-alone company, to substantially less shareholders as a result of the buyback. Atkins meaning all the professional services division including all what was intregrated since the purchase.
3. The top administrative layer of SNC should be reduced. SNC will complete the LSTKs and continue with conventional projects, merge, acquire our simply get sold.
sncthephoenix wrote: Always a pleasure to read your exceptionally informative posts Gabriel. As you and others have already alluded to, this report - unfortunately - highlights the many, varied and extremely onerous challenges for any/all consortiums who pursue and "win" LSTK projects.
However, for SNC in particular, the issue of past-LSTK "wins" now has more to do with expense recovery and the inherent negotiation/adjudication/lawsuits that inevitably result.
To wit: I've continued with my previous analysis as to the potential recoveries that might exist for SNC which I'll highlight as follows (necessarily high-level, significantly variable and extremely speculative given lack-of-access to specific documention)...but also as a starting point for others to build on if/as they so choose:.
(1) Champlain Bridge: Gross Recovery: $379M x's (presumed) 33% Ownership ='s $125M x's (assumed) 66% Win Probability ='s $82.5M
(2) Eglinton Cross: Gross Recovery: $325M x's 25% Ownership ='s $81M x's 50% Win Probabilty re: "formal notice" issue referred back to Superior Court for rehearing ='s $40.5M
(3) Confederation: Partnership Lawsuit minus City Counter-Lawsuit ($230M - $130M) ='s $100M times (presumed) 40% Partnership Share ='s $40M x's 50% Win Probability ='s $20M
(4) Trillium: Project Value: $1.6B x's 100% Ownership x's (assumed) 5% Recovery ='s $80M
(5) Montreal REM: Value $6.3B x's (assumed) 30% Ownership x's (assumed) 2.5% Recovery (re: "cooperative/constructive relationship") ='s $47.25M
This admittedly "back-of-the-envelope" calc re: the above "expected recoveries" equals approx. $270M which is (non-too-surprisingly or completely coincidentallly ;-) only about 10% less than the $300M debt issue SNC just announced.
So, whaddya all think? Tell me where I'm completely right/wrong....too optimistic/pessimistic...off-my-rocker or right-on-target. Whatever the case, the key point I'm trying to make and quantify here is that whatever # we agree upon it'll be purely incremental to the current share price (whenever in future we may actually receive these recoveries, net legal fees of course ;-)
The Phoenix