RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Is CJ buying shares?
Billybabin61 wrote: I have a bit of a different take on their cash flow and how it is affected by current oil price whic h gives them gives them a buffer I believe:
They are forecasting 170-180 mil in free cash flow in 2023 based on 22 K/barrels per day at $80 WTI which appears to be in sync with their levered cash flow as reported by Yahoo Fiance of 168 mil. So using 175 mil as FCF(after the bills are paid) and using 155 mil as outstanding shares provides about $1.12 per share in free cash flow minus the dividend of .72/yr still leaves about $60-$62 mil in FCF($115 Mil for the dividend). For every $1 change in WTI is $7 mil is adjusted cash flow, so worst case scenario a direct hit of $35 mil to FCF would still leave $25 mil in FCF for whatever.
Keep in m ind they are projecting a 3% increase in production which is most likely conservative and that one of the sweet spots they are drilling is in the Clearwater. IMO a dividend cut even under high volatile oil pricing is not an option at this point. Sustaining the dividend is important.
This is pretty much the model I'm understanding... The company seems super confident in the guidance at 80/oil, and all indications they give is that they are rather safe below this point and should show a payout ratio of 60-70% in the next quarterly.