Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

Alternate Symbol(s): CRLFF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Cardinal Energy Ltd. is a Canadian oil and natural gas company with operations focused on low decline oil in Western Canada. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development, optimization and production of crude oil and natural gas in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Its operating areas include the Midale, South District, Central District, and North District. Its Midale operating area of over 730 million barrels of original oil in place (OOIP) and its low decline in production of 3,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) (net) is supported by both waterflood and CO2 enhanced oil recovery. Its South District operating area is located east of Calgary in southeastern Alberta and produces medium gravity crude, as well as liquids-rich natural gas. Its Central District operation is located in East Central Alberta, which is focused on producing oil from multiple, large OOIP pools. Its North area includes Grande Prairie, Clearwater and other properties.

TSX:CJ - Post by User

Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) > Is CJ buying shares?

<< Previous

Bullboard Posts

Next >>

Comment by Quintessential1on Dec 22, 2022 8:14am

275 Views

Post# 35186562

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Is CJ buying shares?

Okay so at $80 WTI everything runs smooth. Cap-ex is covered debt is serviced and the dividend is safe. Then debt gets paid off in say six months end of Q2 2023. Then what?

GLTA

JayBanks wrote:

Billybabin61 wrote: I have a bit of a different take on their cash flow and how it is affected by current oil price whic h gives them gives them a buffer I believe:

They are forecasting 170-180 mil in free cash flow in 2023 based on 22 K/barrels per day at $80 WTI which appears to be in sync with their levered cash flow as reported by Yahoo Fiance of 168 mil. So using 175 mil as FCF(after the bills are paid) and using 155 mil as outstanding shares provides about $1.12 per share in free cash flow minus the dividend of .72/yr still leaves about $60-$62 mil in FCF($115 Mil for the dividend). For every $1 change in WTI is $7 mil is adjusted cash flow, so worst case scenario a direct hit of $35 mil to FCF would still leave $25 mil in FCF for whatever.

Keep in m ind they are projecting a 3% increase in production which is most likely conservative and that one of the sweet spots they are drilling is in the Clearwater. IMO a dividend cut even under high volatile oil pricing is not an option at this point. Sustaining the dividend is important.

This is pretty much the model I'm understanding... The company seems super confident in the guidance at 80/oil, and all indications they give is that they are rather safe below this point and should show a payout ratio of 60-70% in the next quarterly.