RE:RE:If you want a dividend …red2000 wrote: I think we have a chance to see that with Baytex, already beginning of 2024, if WTI reach 100$ only for 6 months in 2023 and the others 6 months between 80 to 90$.
They are able to make easily 800M$ of FCF to reduce the net debt at 400M$ or so !!!
They are very well positioned to do it, with boe/d increasing yearly for 4 to 5%.
Red I think a wti price that averages in the 90s over the next two years will result in shareholder returns > 1 dollar per share in 2024. Sharecount by year end 2023 should be less than 500 and returns should be around 600 in 2024 so roughly 1.20 a share.
If we get a spike into the 100s, which many analysts are calling for, then the timeline on returns accelerates.
China appears to be fully reopening which should result in demand stimulation. I guess it all depends on what you believe as far as the supply demand equation goes. I lean towards a global supply challenge which puts upwards pressure on prices. I'd rather not see a huge spike. A steady climb and settling into 100 oil would be great for us. It won't take any time at all to reach a state where the company can pay out a base dividend in the 1 dollar annual range and continue to have additional fcf to direct towards either special dividends or additional buy backs.
Ed referred multiple times to a meaningful dividend. 1 dollar is quite meaningful. I would think from here, that an introduction of a 1 dollar dividend would drive a 10/share price increase by mid 2024.